The relaxation of security laws and regulations in emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provides abundant opportunities for foreign investors. These markets exhibit high-expected returns and substantial volatility. In this paper, we investigate the lead/lag relationship between the MENA countries and regions. We find no market causality or spillover from one country to another in the North Africa region. Our results for the Levant region reveal that there are linkages between stock markets in this region. The results for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region show that there is more interaction and linkage in the GCC region than in the North Africa and Levant regions. An unexpected result is that UAE's stock market leads all the markets in this region. Finally, we investigate linkages among the three regions. We find that GCC influences the other two regions. 相似文献
The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility. 相似文献
The role of production technology for sustainable economic growth and resource management in the multispecies renewable resources industries is a neglected issue, particularly in complex tropical ecosystems. Given the still rudimentary understanding of biological interactions among species, even in most temperate ecosystems, the importance of under-standing the technological and economic interactions is heightened for sustainable economic growth and public regulation. This paper evaluates these interactions for the multiproduct gill net fisheries of Peninsular Malaysia. Standard price and quantity controls may have little promise. Gear regulations, a policy of constant escapement, and managing the entire mix of species as a single stock for economic rather than biomass yield appear the most promising management tools given the limited regulatory options. 相似文献
This paper develops a polynomial algorithm for obtaining dynamic economic lot sizes in a single product multiperiod production system with the objective of minimizing total production and inventory costs over T periods. It is assumed that production costs are linear, inventory costs are concave, setup costs are zero and backlogging is not permitted in all periods. Moreover, the unit production cost is a stochastic variable, which is evolved according to a continuous-time Markov process over the planning horizon. The model is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming (DP) optimization with the state variable being unit production cost. Then, it is solved using the backward dynamic programming approach. To justify the application of the proposed model, two practical cases are presented. 相似文献
ABSTRACTThis paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval. 相似文献
The paper investigates the impact of the pre-acquisition evaluation of target firms on the performance of cross border acquisitions using data from a sample of acquisitions made by UK firms. The findings provide reasonable support for organizational learning theory, suggesting that the more the acquiring firm learns about the target firm then the better will be the acquisition performance. Specifically, we find support for the hypothesis that thorough evaluation of the strategic and cultural fit positively influences cross border acquisition success. Further, the analysis reveals that detailed evaluation of the target firm's employee and business capability improves acquisition performance. The managerial implications of the findings and directions for future research are also discussed. 相似文献
Since the United Nations’ establishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000 the world has observed an increasing trend in foreign aid provided by more affluent countries to developing nations. This paper examined whether foreign aid (total foreign aid and health sector aid) has been effective in improving the health of citizens in recipient nations since establishment of the MDGs. Five facets of population health were examined: infant mortality, life expectancy, the annual death rate, and immunizations against measles and diphtheria. Using a panel data set covering 90 developing countries, observed annually over 2001–2015, fixed-effects multivariate regressions with alternative specifications were estimated for each of these measures. The findings reveal that foreign aid has had little to no effect on population health since 2000. We found some evidence that foreign aid has improved life expectancy in developing countries, however, the effect is very small. In light of these findings, continued monitoring of the relationship between foreign aid and health outcomes would be both valuable and prudent.
This article used a data set containing information on 1267 households from Kuwait to investigate the determinants of demand for medical care services by examining households’ out-of-pocket expenses. To deal with the problems associated with households’ health expenditure data, a two-part model (TPM) was estimated. Given Kuwait’s demographic composition, the model was estimated for full sample, nationals only and expatriates only. Prior to estimating the model, tests were conducted to select a transformation that reduces problems associated with heteroscedasticity and non-normality of the errors. In addition, tests were performed to determine if differences in the estimated coefficients across population groups were statistically significant. 相似文献
This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established. 相似文献