Why Do Women Wait? Matching, Wage Inequality, and the Incentives for Fertility Delay

This paper explores the interaction between wage inequality and the marriage and fertility decisions of young women. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and investment in children that allows for differential timing of fertility. We show how patterns of fertility timing in U.S. data can be explained by the incentives for fertility delay implied by marriage and labor markets. We find that these incentives help explain both the cross-sectional relationship between women's wages and fertility timing and the changes over the past 40 years in married women's fertility timing and labor supply. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J12, J13.     

The Ottoman dissolution and the İstanbul bourse between war and peace: a foreign exchange market perspective on the Great War

The participation of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War caused economic disruptions, huge budget deficits, surmounted inflation rates and excessive depreciation of Lira, the Ottoman currency. Based on the value of Lira against the currencies of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden that were not in the war, we focus on the effects of news about the war on the foreign exchange rates at the ?stanbul bourse from 1918 to 1919. Our results signify some dates, which match the announcements of the armistices and peace meetings, heralding continuous depreciation of Lira. Thus, the findings support the presence of an expectation on the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire with the peace, marked by the escalation of the loss in trust for the Lira and the power of the state in foreign exchange interventions.     

Returns to schooling in Kazakhstan

This paper examines rates of return to schooling in Kazakhstan using OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) and instrumental variable (IV) methodologies. We use spouse's education and smoking as instruments. We find that spouse's education is a valid instrument and that conventional OLS estimates that assume the exogenous nature of schooling, and hence do not control for endogeneity bias, may underestimate the true rates of return. The results indicate that the returns to schooling in Kazakhstan have increased with transition. This may reflect the relative scarcities of highly educated people in Kazakhstan with human capital that employers require and, following the market reforms, reward accordingly.     

Distortions,endogenous managerial skills and productivity differences

We develop a span-of-control model where managerial skills are endogenous and the outcome of investments over the life cycle of managers. We calibrate this model to U.S. plant-size data to quantify the effects of distortions that are correlated with the size of production units, and how these effects are amplified by managerial investments. We find a quantitatively important role for managerial investments. Distortions that consist of a tax rate of 20% on the top 50% managers reduce steady-state output by about 14.6% in our benchmark model. When skills are exogenous the reduction is about 9.2%.     

Taxing women: A macroeconomic analysis

Based on well-known evidence on labor supply elasticities, several authors have concluded that women should be taxed at lower rates than men. We evaluate the quantitative implications and merits of this proposition. Relative to the current system of taxation, setting a proportional tax rate on married females equal to 4% (8%) increases output and married female labor force participation by about 3.9% (3.4%) and 6.9% (4.0%), respectively. Gender-based taxes improve welfare and are preferred by a majority of households. Nevertheless, welfare gains are higher when the U.S. tax system is replaced by a proportional, gender-neutral income tax.     

Estimates of the macroeconomic costs of cyber‐attacks

This paper estimates the macroeconomic losses related to the cyber‐attacks originating from the information and communications technology (ICT) and the financial sectors. The study accounts for the interdependency of various economic sectors and looks to the cascading effect of cyber‐attacks on production network in the United States and leading Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries with the help of the input–output methodology and the World Input–Output Database. Our results suggest that cyber‐attacks that affect the ICT and finance sectors result in losses which also impact different economic sectors, due to cascading effects.     

More on Marriage,Fertility, and the Distribution of Income*

According to Pareto (1896) , the distribution of income depends on “the nature of the people comprising a society, on the organization of the latter, and, also, in part, on chance.” In the model developed here the “nature of the people” is captured by attitudes toward marriage, divorce, fertility, and children. Singles search for mates in a marriage market. Married agents bargain about work, and the quantity and quality of children. They can divorce. Social policies, such as child support requirements, reflect the “organization of the (society).” Finally, “chance” is modeled by randomness in income, marriage opportunities, and marital bliss.     

Effects of correlation on intermittent demand forecasting and stock control

This study investigates the effects of three different types of correlation on forecasting and stock control of intermittent demand items. Applying appropriate forecasting and stock control methods to theoretically generated compound Poisson demand data we show that correlation in intermittent demand does play a role in forecast quality and stock control performance. Negative autocorrelation levels lead to higher service levels than positive values, while cost does not significantly change. Our results also show that high intermittency levels intensify these changes in service level. We also show that cross-correlation produces results in the opposite direction of autocorrelation in size or intervals; that is, positive (negative) cross-correlation leads to higher (lower) service levels.     

Foreign Equity Trading and Average Stock‐return Volatility

We examine whether there is a relationship between foreign equity trading and average total volatility, measured as the value‐weighted average of stock‐return variance in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. We employ foreign equity purchase and sale data to track changes in foreign equity trading, which not only enable us to capture effective foreign investor participation but also to observe the potential asymmetric effects of incoming and outgoing funds on the average total volatility. Consistent with the implications of the asymmetric information hypothesis, we find that net equity flow is positively associated with average total volatility. Furthermore, we show that net equity flow affects the average total volatility through the local and idiosyncratic volatilities, suggesting that foreign investors engage in the production of firm specific and market wide information.     

SOCIAL CHANGE: THE SEXUAL REVOLUTION*

In 1900 only 6% of unwed teenage females engaged in premarital sex. Now, three quarters do. The sexual revolution is studied here using an equilibrium matching model, where the costs of premarital sex fall over time due to technological improvement in contraceptives. Individuals differ in their desire for sex. Given this, people tend to circulate in social groups where prospective partners share their views on premarital sex. To the extent that society's customs and mores reflect the aggregation of decentralized decision making by its members, shifts in the economic environment may induce changes in what is perceived as culture.