U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles,Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency

This paper studies U.S. house prices across 45 metropolitan areas from 1980 to 2012. It applies a version of the Gordon dividend discount model for long‐run “fundamentals” and uses Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group estimation to estimate long‐run and short‐run determinants of house prices. We find great similarity across cities in that the long‐run house prices are largely explained by the same fundamentals; the long‐run rent to price ratio is approximately 5% plus 0.75 times the real interest rate (which is on the order of 2%). However, adjustments to deviations from the fundamentals are slow, in the long‐run, closing the gap at a rate of around 10% per year. We find sharp differences in short‐run adjustments (momentum) away from the fundamentals across cities, and the differences are correlated with local supply elasticities (more momentum with lower elasticity). Analysis of residuals suggests strong cyclical deviations, which are mean‐reverting.     

Valuing the implicit guarantee of the Federal National Mortgage Association

The paper analyzes the guarantee of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA). Rather than try to price the guarantee, we used time-series estimates of its value from Kane and Foster to infer the behavior of FNMA in exploiting the guarantee. The results are consistent with a model that predicts that FNMA does not take as much risk as it might. Rather, it trades off risk and return, but it does increase risk and exploit the guarantee when it gets in trouble (as it did in 1981).We have received helpful research assistance from Peter Carr and Bruno Gerard.     

Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default

This paper tests the contingent claims model of mortgage default in its ruthless or frictionless form. The principal tests of the model are based on an unconventional source of data, namely, loan loss severities on defaulted mortgages. The frictionless model has well-defined predictions about loss severities which we test in detail. The data analyzed include a random sample of all mortgages originated during the period 1975–90 and purchased by Freddie Mac, as well as the loss severities on all mortgages purchased by Freddie Mac which defaulted during the period. The frictionless model does not do well in these tests.     

Mortgage Pricing: Some Provisional Empirical Results

We test some of the qualitative properties of mortgage pricing models. The models use option pricing techniques, focusing on prepayment as a call option. They imply a quite nonlinear relationship between mortgage price and coupon, interest rates and volatility. We test for both the first and second derivatives of the effects of these variables using data on Ginnie Mae mortgage backed securities. We find that the model is largely supported by the data.     

Securitization,Risk‐Taking and the Option to Change Strategy

This article models the riskiness of structured securitization deals. The deals are put together by “banks,” which can exercise strategic options over the risk put into the deals. The banks face a trade‐off between the benefits of risk‐taking now and future franchise benefits if the deal pays off. The key insight is a convex relationship between the value of the bank's equity position and the risk in the deal. Although there is a continuum of possible risk, banks choose either the highest or lowest levels of risk open to them. Changes in strategy are discontinuous and unpredictable; a history of low risk‐taking may be a prelude to increased risk‐taking later. Competition, to the extent of reducing franchise value, can lead to more risk‐taking, as can more information in the market. The model provides insights into the risk‐taking that led up to the Great Recession and to institutions that are “Too Big to Fail.”     

Housing and the Economy: Popular Myths

This paper identifies and tries to clarify the effects of a number of changes in the system of delivering mortgage credit and housing subsidies. First, we examine the trends in housing and mortgage market data and policy. This review highlights the perceived relationships of these sectors to the rest of the economy. We then focus on and develop the relationship between four issues that have been fundamental stumbling blocks to the development of effective policy. The issues are: (1) homeownership affordability, (2) measures of housing needs, (3) the costs of cycles in housing production, and (4) the effects of federal mortgage credit programs.     

Explicit tests of contingent claims models of mortgage default

This paper provides explicit and powerful tests of contingent claims approaches to modeling mortgage default. We investigate a model of frictionless default (i.e., one in which transactions costs, reputation costs, and moving costs play no role) and analyze its implications-the relationship between equity and default, the timing of default, its dependence upon initial conditions, and the severity of losses. Absent transactions costs and other market imperfections, economic theory makes well-defined predictions about these various outcomes.The empirical analysis is based upon two particularly rich bodies of micro data: one indicating the default and loss experience of all mortgages purchased by the Federal Home Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), and a large sample of all repeat sales of single family houses whose mortgages were purchased by Freddie Mac since 1976.     

A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - The recent surge in property values in China has been similar to the surge in the U.S before the crash in 2007. This raises concerns about whether...     

Income, Location and Default: Some Implications for Community Lending

This paper investigates differences in default losses across income groups and neighborhoods, in an effort to see if there are significant differences between default experience on loans to low-income households or low-income neighborhoods and other loans. We find that while defaults and losses are somewhat higher in low-income neighborhoods, default behavior is similar in the sense that responses to negative equity are similar across neighborhoods, and remaining differences are small and might be explained by omitted variables such as those measuring credit history.     

Comment: Some Notes of the Effects of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Mortgage Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -