Stochastic Payments per Claim Incurred

We propose a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the payments per claim incurred (PPCI) algorithm. Based on the PPCI algorithm, two submodels are proposed for the number of reported claims run-off triangle and the PPCI run-off triangle, respectively. The model for the claims amount is then derived from the two submodels under the assumption of independence between the number of incurred claims and the PPCI. The joint likelihood of the number of reported claims and claims amount is derived. The posterior distribution of parameters is estimated via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling approach. The Bayesian estimator, the process variance, the estimation variance, and the predictive distribution of unpaid claims are also studied. The proposed model and the HMC inference engine are applied to to an empirical claims dataset of the WorkSafe Victoria to estimate the unpaid claims of the doctor benefit. The Bayesian modeling procedure is further refined by including a preliminary generalized linear model analysis. The results are compared with those in a PwC report. An alternative model is compared with the proposed model based on various information criteria.     

How Owners Matter? An Examination of Ownership Type in Corporate Disaster Relief Giving

Little research has investigated the effect of ownership identity (or type) and corporate philanthropy experience on giving. In this research, relying on legitimacy theory, we first assess the effect of ownership identity on corporate philanthropy (CP) in the context of the 2008 earthquake in China. Then we explore moderation effects of firms' prior CP experience and size as proxies for perceived legitimacy on owners' efforts at increasing giving and legitimacy. We find that state and CEO ownership are deterrents, while non‐SOE and institutional ownership enhances giving probability and amount. In addition, there is evidence that firm size and prior CP weaken the effects of institutional ownership on CP. This study provides a complete assessment of owner behaviour. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Idiosyncratic Information,Moral Hazard,and the Cost of Capital

This paper examines the effects of idiosyncratic accounting information on a firm's cost of capital. By embedding a moral hazard problem into a multifirm asset‐pricing model, I show that moral hazard distorts the sharing of idiosyncratic risk but does not affect the sharing of systematic risk in the economy. A firm‐level improvement in idiosyncratic information reduces the firm's cost of capital even though it does not affect the implied cost of capital inferred from publicly traded shares. Moreover, an economy‐level improvement in idiosyncratic information reduces the risk premium for idiosyncratic risk but increases the risk premium for systematic risk, resulting in an ambiguous net effect on the firm's cost of capital. These results provide alternative explanations for the mixed empirical evidence on the relation between information quality and the cost of capital.     

企业社会责任报告与公开债务融资

本文以2016—2018年沪深两市A股非金融类上市公司为样本,研究企业社会责任报告与公开债务融资的关系.研究发现,披露企业社会责任报告显著提高了企业公开债务融资的成功率和规模;企业社会责任报告质量越高,对企业公开债务融资选择、规模的正向影响越大;相较于民营企业而言,国有企业披露社会责任报告对公开债务融资的影响更为明显.进一步研究发现,相较于应规披露、未披露企业社会责任报告的上市公司而言,自愿披露对公开债务融资具有显著正向影响;市场化水平较高的地区,披露企业社会责任报告对公开债务融资具有显著促进作用,市场化水平较低的地区则不具有明显影响.     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

邱少云和他守望的城

当今日重庆记者来到邱少云烈士纪念馆时,见到了很多小朋友的身影. 作为铜梁人,逯娟对此情形早已习惯.带孩子到邱少云烈士纪念馆缅怀英烈一直是铜梁人的传统,她自己从小就喜欢到邱少云烈士纪念馆.     

大片里的小心机空姐教你如何美美地上镜

入职重庆航空前,王秋丹是一名兼职模特,她爱拍照也特别会拍照.在她的微信朋友圈里,她有时化身邻家女孩在树荫下喝茶看书,有时变身异域少女载歌载舞……不管什么造型,照片里的她看起来总是美美的,特别上镜. 如何拍出这样美美的"大片"?王秋丹说除了选好环境、打扮漂亮之外,肢体语言也很重要,这里有一些小技巧.     

协作型企业供应链管理

供应链管理作为一种新型的企业关系管理模式在现代市场竞争中为企业生存与发展提供了一种工具。本文针对协作型企业供应链管理进行了研究。协作型企业供应链由于其业务联系上的紧密性与其他供应链有所不同，在生产计划制定上强调生产计划的一致性与协调性，核心企业与供应企业在生产计划制定方面的信息共享；在销售管理上强调企业与销售商集成式管理。     

发展中国远期外汇品种的优先次序

中国人民银行宣布自2005年7月21日起中国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。这是中国在汇率形成机制市场化改革进程中迈出的重要的关键一步,这表明人民币汇率的变动将更加灵活、具有弹性。此后不久,央行在8月10日推出促进银行间外汇市场发展的重大举措,其中包括扩大即期外汇市场交易主体、允许开办银行间远期外汇交易、并允许符合资格的市场会员开展人民币掉期交易等。这意味着,在新的汇率制度下,政府正加快发展完善远期外汇市场的步伐,从而为市场主体提供更充分、有效的避险工具,避免汇率变动对实…     

煤运吃紧暴露铁路运力不足

铁路运输纷纷告急 由于冬季以来气温急剧变化,2003年用电高峰提前到来,发电用煤需求随之剧增,而运力一时难以提高,导致许多电厂煤炭库存减少,煤炭中转港口场存减少.2003年11月份秦皇岛港日均到车较10月份日均减少346辆,由于煤炭调入不足,79种内贸煤炭绝大多数都出现短缺,煤炭运输持续迟滞.