Transmission of information within transnational social networks: a field experiment

Several studies have shown a relationship between the stocks of migrants and country-level investment in the home country; however the mechanism through which this relationship operates is still unexplored. We use a field experiment in which participants who are recent immigrants send information about risky decisions to others in their social network in their home country. The results demonstrate how this information influences decisions in the home country. We find that the advice given by family members and decisions made by friends significantly affects an individual’s risky decision-making.     

How much are electric vehicles driven?

The prospect for electric vehicles as a climate change solution hinges on their ability to reduce gasoline consumption. But this depends on how many miles electric vehicles are driven and on how many miles would have otherwise been driven in gasoline-powered vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, this paper finds that electric vehicles are driven considerably fewer miles per year on average than gasoline-powered vehicles. The difference is highly statistically significant and holds for both all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, for both single- and multiple-vehicle households, and both inside and outside California. The paper discusses potential explanations and policy implications. Overall, the evidence suggests that today’s electric vehicles imply smaller environmental benefits than previously believed.     

The demand for small cars in the United States: Implications for energy conservation strategies

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of household characteristics and preferences for Japanese cars on the demand for small cars in the United States. Two stage probit analysis was used to examine the impact of various explanatory variables on the purchase decision. The results indicated that preferences for Japanese cars, income, price and several household characteristics had a significant impact on the probability of purchasing a small car. The results of this study provide support for freer trade in automobiles and higher gasoline taxes as energy conservation strategies.

---

Zusammenfassung Die Nachfrage nach Kleinwagen in USA: Implikationen für Strategien zur Energieeinsparung. Diese Untersuchung wollte herausfinden, wie sich Haushaltseigenschaften und Präferenzen für japanische Autos auf die Nachfrage nach Kleinwagen in den Vereinigten Staaten auswirken. Die Stichprobe umfa\te 367 Haushalte, die im Jahr 1986 ein neues Auto kauften. Davon kauften 141 Haushalte amerikanische Kleinwagen, 84 japanische Kleinwagen und 142 Haushalte kauften gro\e amerikanische Wagen. Eine zweistufige Probit-Analyse prüfte den Einflu\ der verschiedenen Erklärungsvariablen auf die Kaufentscheidung. Die Ergebnisse besagen im wesentlichen, da\ es die Präferenzen für japanische Autos, das Einkommen, der Preis und einige Haushaltseigenschaften sind, die einen signifikanten Einflu\ auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Kleinwagenkaufs haben. Die Autoren sehen in den Ergebnissen eine Unterstützung für die Forderung nach Freihandel im Automobilsektor und nach höherer Besteuerung von Kraftstoffen als Strategien zur Energieeinsparung.

     

Adding Value to Agricultural Data: A Golden Opportunity

Agricultural decision makers rely on information provided by public and private entities. Data is a valuable asset and represents a tremendous investment of resources. However, difficulty locating sources and/or interpreting values may compromise its usefulness. The Florida citrus industry serves as an example of the data problem faced by many users; over 50 publications produced by 13 agencies are identified as official sources of citrus data. An indication of the potential for lost value and the dilemma facing modern agriculture is provided. This paper draws on corporate information management techniques as a framework for adding value to agricultural data.     

Who are the world's most successful companies?

It seems that everybody wants to know which companies are the most successful. To help throw light on the issue, and to do so more reliably than the plethora of league tables and charts produced by most business magazines, the London Business School have teamed up with The Economist to compile an assessment of the top performers of the 1980's.     

Look sharp,feel sharp,be sharp and listen — anecdotal excellence: People,places and things

While the techniques become more sophisticated, the hardware and software go through new generations and we move towards such unexplored options as internet fundraising and legal restraints, the challenges and successes in the field of fundraising and in the personality of fundraisers should not change very much: they are faced with the assignment of making the donors feel important, the causes seem attractive, and making the system move with ease and comfort for everyone concerned. The author gives strong credence to such ‘simple’ matters as appearance, health, ethics, virtue and giving attention to words as well as innuendo. The reader will learn if he or she ‘listens’ to the message of this paper; if, on the other hand, he or she is looking for a shortcut or a foolproof plan short of living and loving in the field, it will not be found — in this or any other paper. Fundraising is a synergestic system: you put everything you know together, and it comes out to equal more than the sum of its parts. Still, you keep on learning. The best fundraiser has not yet been born; the most successful campaign has not yet begun; the wisdom is still being assembled. This paper is one man's overview of where we have been, what we are doing in best practice scenarios, and what is possible if we ‘Look sharp, feel sharp, be sharp and listen’; it includes a good overview of ‘Anecdotal excellence: people, places and things’. The paper starts with a word from God and ends with a reminder for us all: ‘We must remember — to look forward!’ Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a naïve alternative. We find that the FOMC output forecasts were better than the naïve model and at least as good as those of the private sector and the Fed staff. The FOMC inflation forecasts were more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the naïve model; for the period ending in 1996, however, they were not as accurate as Fed staff inflation forecasts.     

Costs of financial instability, household-sector balance sheets and consumption

Extant work on costs of financial instability focuses on fiscal costs and declines in aggregate GDP following banking crises. We estimate effects of banking and currency crises on consumption in 19 OECD countries, showing consumption plays an important role in the adjustment following a crisis, and effects are not captured solely by the impact of crises on standard consumption determinants, income and wealth. Additional effects, attributable to factors such as time-varying confidence, uncertainty and credit rationing, are aggravated by high and rising leverage, despite financial liberalisation easing liquidity constraints. High leverage implies that banking crises taking place now could have greater incidence than in the past.