Fiscal Spending,Relative‐Price Dynamics,and Welfare in a World Economy*

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model where foreign asset holdings and capital accumulation are independently determined by optimizing agents. Each country has two production sectors, both of whose products are used for consumption, and an investment sector, which uses one of the two commodities to accumulate real capital. In this setting we examine the effects of fiscal spending on the equilibrium paths of interest rates and prices and each country's lifetime utility. The welfare effect is found to consist of the static terms‐of‐trade effect, the dynamic foreign asset effect and the direct income‐loss effect.     

Unemployment dynamics in an OLG economy with public pensions

Pension benefits in old age establish a disincentive to save in youth, thereby yielding lower levels of capital stock and the wage rate. As a result, the trade union has an incentive to change the composition of its two targets: employment and the wage rate. This paper develops a model that includes employment effects of public pensions via capital accumulation and union wage setting. Within this framework, we consider how contribution rates to the pension system influence the level and time path of the unemployment rate. It is demonstrated that (1) a higher contribution rate results in a lower unemployment rate, and (2) the economy with a high (low) contribution rate experiences monotone convergence towards (oscillatory convergence towards or a period-2 cycle around) the steady state. The author would like to thank an anonymous referee, Kazutoshi Miyazawa, and seminar participants at Osaka University for their useful comments and suggestions, and Masako Ikefuji and Hiroaki Yamagami for their research assistance. Financial support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) through a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (No.17730131), the Asahi Glass Foundation, the Japan Economic Research Foundation and the 21st Century COE Program (Osaka University) is gratefully acknowledged. All remaining errors are mine.     

Environmental tax policy in a model of growth cycles

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level. Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments, which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University, and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine.     

A Reinterpretation of Chapter 17 of Keynes's general Theory: Effective Demand Shortage Under Dynamic Optimization

This article is an attempt to formalize Chapter 17 of Keynes's General Theory using a continuous dynamic optimization model with perfect foresight. I present two subjective interest rates: the time preference rate and the liquidity premium that, respectively, govern the consumption-saving and portfolio decisions. Under optimal household behavior, they are equalized to the market rate of interest. In the monetary economy described by Keynes, however, the equality can be inconsistent with the condition of market equilibrium, in which case persistent stagnation occurs. A new analytic method based on dynamic optimization is proposed as an alternative to IS-LM analysis.     

REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A BORROWING‐CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

We develop a two‐period, three‐class of income model where low‐income agents are borrowing constrained because of capital market imperfections, and where redistributive expenditure is financed by tax and government debt. When the degree of capital market imperfection is high, there is an ends‐against‐the‐middle equilibrium where the constrained low‐income and the unconstrained high‐income agents favour low levels of government debt and redistributive expenditure; these agents form a coalition against the middle. In this equilibrium, the levels of government debt and expenditure might be below the efficient levels, and the spread of income distribution results in a lower debt‐to‐GDP ratio.     

中国农民市民化经济门槛与城市化关系研究:理论与实证

应用“门槛理论”分析了中国农民市民化的经济门槛,动力学模型的推导及其实证研究结果表明:农村居民可支配收入超过“梯级门槛”的农村居民的数量是影响我国城市化发展的速度、进程的关键变量。因此,降低农民市民化的经济门槛、增加农民收入、有效控制城乡居民收入差距扩大化趋势是实现农民市民化的前提条件,同时也是全面推进中国城市化发展必须解决的现实问题。     

Globalization and Greater Flexibility in the Japanese Labor Market: Exploring the Macro–Micro Link

The author explores the missing links between globalization and greater flexibility in the Japanese labor market based on review of literature and available evidence. Understanding Japan’s responses to globalization requires a nuanced approach, which accounts for its historical trajectory and social-institutional context. Along with globalization, Japan is experiencing a greater infusion of foreign capital, and an increasing presence of foreign firms. These foreign firms bring human resource practices that are more market driven and less socially embedded compared to the status quo. The diverging human resources practices of foreign firms have spillover effects that may destabilize the Japanese employment system in the long run.     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

China's food and agriculture: A turning point

The prospects for food and agriculture in China depend upon the prospects for changes in the population between urban and rural sectors, changes in the levels of food consumption in these sectors, and the potential for increasing production in response to increased demand. Prof Ishikawa examines the elements influencing demand pressure, the economics of mechanisation in China, and the economic and social conditions in which the mechanisation can be realised. He concludes that China is facing a new situation in which a significant change in either or both the resource allocation pattern and the incentive system will be required.