Value at risk and the cross-section of hedge fund returns

Using two large hedge fund databases, this paper empirically tests the presence and significance of a cross-sectional relation between hedge fund returns and value at risk (VaR). The univariate and bivariate portfolio-level analyses as well as the fund-level regression results indicate a significantly positive relation between VaR and the cross-section of expected returns on live funds. During the period of January 1995 to December 2003, the live funds with high VaR outperform those with low VaR by an annual return difference of 9%. This risk-return tradeoff holds even after controlling for age, size, and liquidity factors. Furthermore, the risk profile of defunct funds is found to be different from that of live funds. The relation between downside risk and expected return is found to be negative for defunct funds because taking high risk by these funds can wipe out fund capital, and hence they become defunct. Meanwhile, voluntary closure makes some well performed funds with large assets and low risk fall into the defunct category. Hence, the risk-return relation for defunct funds is more complicated than what implies by survival. We demonstrate how to distinguish live funds from defunct funds on an ex ante basis. A trading rule based on buying the expected to live funds and selling the expected to disappear funds provides an annual profit of 8–10% depending on the investment horizons.     

Currency Prices, the Nominal Exchange Rate, and Security Prices in a Two‐Country Dynamic Monetary Equilibrium

This paper examines a continuous‐time two‐country dynamic monetary equilibrium in which countries with possibly heterogeneous tastes and endowments hold their own money for the purpose of transaction services formulated via money in the utility function. Given a price system, no‐arbitrage pricing results are provided for the price of each money and the nominal exchange rate. Characterizations are provided for equilibrium prices for general time‐additive preferences and non‐Markovian exogenous processes. Under a Markovian structure of model primitives, the currency prices are shown to solve a bivariate system of partial differential equations. Assuming that each country is endowed with heterogeneous separable power utility and the exogenous quantities all follow geometric Brownian motions, an equilibrium is shown to exist and additional characterization is provided. A further example of nonseparable Cobb–Douglas preferences is investigated. The additional features over the customary environment of homogeneous logarithmic preferences are emphasized.     

Hedonic price estimation for the Turkish bread wheat characteristics

This research has been made to assess the effects of the characteristics of bread wheat quality on the prices in the Turkish bread wheat market. A hedonic price model was used to analyze factors affecting the variability in bread wheat prices. Results indicate that prices received by bread wheat producers reflect the presence of basic quality characteristics of bread wheat. According to the research consequences, the hectoliter and sedimentation are the major factors that have the greatest effect and influence on Turkish bread wheat market in respect to the quality aspects. The study shows that the five regions in Turkey, which have been chosen as the research area and are important in bread wheat production, have differences in terms of bread wheat quality characteristics.     

Multiplicity in general financial equilibrium with portfolio constraints

This paper explores the role of portfolio constraints in generating multiplicity of equilibrium. We present a simple financial market economy with two goods and two households, households who face constraints on their ability to take unbounded positions in risky stocks. Absent such constraints, equilibrium allocation is unique and is Pareto efficient. With one portfolio constraint in place, the efficient equilibrium is still possible; however, additional inefficient equilibria in which the constraint is binding may emerge. We show further that with portfolio constraints cum incomplete markets, there may be a continuum of equilibria; adding incomplete markets may lead to real indeterminacy.     

Optimal Asset Allocation and Risk Shifting in Money Management

This article investigates a fund manager's risk-taking incentivesinduced by an increasing and convex relationship of fund flowsto relative performance. In a dynamic portfolio choice framework,we show that the ensuing convexities in the manager's objectivegive rise to a finite risk-shifting range over which she gamblesto finish ahead of her benchmark. Such gambling entails eitheran increase or a decrease in the volatility of the manager'sportfolio, depending on her risk tolerance. In the latter case,the manager reduces her holdings of the risky asset despiteits positive risk premium. Our empirical analysis lends supportto the novel predictions of the model.     

Testing for spatial market integration and law of one price in Turkish wheat markets

This paper examines co-integration models in testing for spatial market integration and the Law of One Price (LOP) for Turkish wheat market. The multivariate co-integration tests show that there is one co-integrating vector in the system which implies that though the markets are integrated, the LOP does not hold. Vector error correction model restrictions tests also show that structural breaks have impacts on the long-run linkage among the prices. These results are important for wheat production policies and for wheat market liberalization considerations in the future.     

Capital Market Equilibrium with Differential Taxation

This paper studies the effect of investor-specific differentialdividend taxation on the dynamics of equilibrium security pricesand allocations. In order to deal with the inherent Paretoinefficiency of such an equilibrium as well as the preclusion oftax arbitrage, we construct a continuous-time equilibrium via arepresentative investor with state-dependent utility. Investorsdiffer in their pricing of risk, inducing investor-specificconsumption-based CAPMs, with differential taxation appearing asan additional factor. The interest rate, stock price, andconsumption dynamics are also impacted. Under logarithmicpreferences, risk is transferred from the higher-taxed to thelower-taxed investor, and the interest rate decreases tocounteract extra precautionary savings against this suboptimallyshared risk. Numerical analysis reveals further tax rate,time-to-horizon, and dividend risk effects on equilibriumquantities. For most wealth allocations, the stock returnvolatility is increased above the no-tax benchmark.     

Difference in interim performance and risk taking with short-sale constraints

Absent much theory, empirical works often rely on the following informal reasoning when looking for evidence of a mutual fund tournament: If there is a tournament, interim winners have incentives to decrease their portfolio volatility as they attempt to protect their lead, while interim losers are expected to increase their volatility so as to catch up with winners. We consider a rational model of a mutual fund tournament in the presence of short-sale constraints and find the opposite: Interim winners choose more volatile portfolios in equilibrium than interim losers. Several empirical works present evidence consistent with our model. However, based on the above informal argument, they appear to conclude against the tournament behavior. We argue that this conclusion is unwarranted. We also demonstrate that tournament incentives lead to differences in interim performance for otherwise identical managers and that mid-year trading volume is inversely related to mid-year stock return.     

Bridging Civilizations From Asia to Europe： The Silk Road

Throughout history, Silk Road played an important role with connecting more than 50 countries between its endpoints. Reviving this ancient trade route is a contemporary discussion among politicians. There are many projects realized and proposed for the resurgence of the modem Silk Road, including the railroad project connecting Baku, Tiflis and Kars of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey; the undersea rail tunnel under the Bosphorus strait, Marmaray; the Silk Road Economic Belt proposed by China; and the Maritime Silk Road, again proposed by China. Just like the original Silk Road, it was not only a route for caravans or trade, but it was a meeting point for cultural, religious, and philosophical exchanges that served humanity for centuries; today＇s modem Silk Road initiatives should be considered as bridges between Eastern and Western civilizations that will serve the same purpose of its ancient predecessor. The revived Silk Road will facilitate strengthening of relationships in between countries that experienced harmony in history. The railways, transportation facilities, transnational gates, energy corridors, and natural gas pipelines that constitute the Silk Road will transform the region with improving its economy and bringing peace and economic prosperity. With recent developments, it witnesses the importance of geopolitical and historical ties in establishing contemporary alliances. Although there are great expectations with the revival of the modern Silk Road, authors would like to emphasize that it should be an agreement to foster shared interests rather than the interest of bigger partners.     

International good market segmentation and financial innovation

While international capital flows are now well liberalized, markets for goods remain segmented. To investigate how financial innovation may relieve the effects of this segmentation on risk sharing, we examine a series of two-country economies with internationally segmented good markets, distinguished by the available financial securities. Sufficient conditions for efficiency include complete international financial markets together with liberalized international financial flows. Under these conditions, heterogeneous agents from the same country may use securities as a substitute for the international shipment of goods. This allows them to partially circumvent the segmentation, allowing for efficient risk sharing.