Globalization and Uncertainty: Earnings Volatility in Sweden, 1985–2003

Earnings volatility has been linked to economic integration only through contradictory conjectures. We assess globalization’s role by examining volatility trends in manufacturing, private services, and public services. If trade increases uncertainty, volatility trends should differ markedly across industries since manufacturing, in contrast to especially public services, is exposed to international competition. We analyze earnings trajectories in Sweden 1985–2003, a country and period evincing accelerating trade, finding no indications of greater volatility increases in manufacturing.     

Price and Investment Dynamics: Theory and Plant-Level Data

We construct a model of a firm competing for market share in a customer market and making investments in physical capital. The firm is financially constrained and there are implementation lags in investment. Our model predicts that product prices should depend on costs and competitors' prices but respond weakly to demand shocks. Also, prices should be strongly related to investment. We estimate price and investment equations on panel data for Swedish manufacturing plants and find results that are qualitatively in line with these predictions, though the relation between investment and prices is stronger than predicted by our model.     

CREDIBILITY AND RENEGOTIATION OF OUTCOME FUNCTIONS IN IMPLEMENTATION*

Recent research has been motivated by the fact that the outcome function in implementation may not be “credible”. On the one hand, the players may try to renegotiate the final outcome, if there is another outcome which they prefer. On the other hand, the “social planner” may have an incentive not to implement the finaloutcome, if there is another outcome which he prefers. I show that in the exchange economy, the first problem is not serious. a planner with unlimited commitment power can design a “collusion-proof” mechanism, which is stable against all sorts of group devciation, including the ex post trade of goods among the agents. I will, However, argue tha hte second problem (the planner's commitment problem) can be very serious.     

How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis

The short‐run increase in prices following an unexpected tightening of monetary policy constitutes a puzzle frequently reported in empirical studies. Yet the puzzle is easy to explain away when all published models are quantitatively reviewed. We collect and examine about 1,000 point estimates of impulse responses from 70 articles that use vector autoregressions to study monetary transmission in various countries. We find that the puzzle is created by model misspecifications: especially by the omission of commodity prices, neglect of potential output, and reliance on recursive identification. Our results also suggest that the strength of monetary policy depends on the country’s openness, phase of the economic cycle, and degree of central bank independence.