Modes of Commuting in Mumbai: A Discrete Choice Analysis

Using a nested multinomial logit model (NMNL), this paper estimates the choice probabilities and demand elasticities of various modal alternatives for Mumbai using 1990 trip origination and destination data. The results indicate that with an increase in the cost of private transit system, market share is reduced. The result of this experiment is highly elastic private commuting mode demand. In addition, reduction in the market share of own vehicles is larger than that of hired vehicles. The increase in the cost of mass transit system reduces its share but is inelastic. Decrease in the market share of one mode is accompanied by increase in the market share of others. Income has a positive effect on the market share of private transit modes, particularly on the own vehicles' share. Other explanatory variables such as distance have a negative effect on mass transit system and duration has a negative elasticity for all modes of transportation.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE REFORM PERIOD

We identify some empirical evidences for the structural changes in the determinants of regional growth, disparities and the convergence speed to the per capita GDP equilibrium during the reform period of 1978–1998 in China. We estimate a growth regression model by augmenting the Solow model with a provincial-level panel data set. The existence of conditional convergence is confirmed throughout the reform period, but the convergence speed is faster in the 1990s than the early reform period. Agro-industry-based rural development contributed to regional growth and eased interregional disparities in the early reform period. Foreign capital inflows took a significant leading role for regional growth during the 1990s, but aggravated interregional disparities. Education and non-state enterprises were among the other keys for regional growth throughout the reform period. These results implies that for achieving sustainable and balanced growth in future, it is essential to extend foreign capital investment to the interior regions, in association with further development of human capital resource and non-state local enterprises.     

ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD LEISURE AND SHOPPING BEHAVIOR IN IBARAKI PREFECTURE, JAPAN

Understanding household leisure and shopping behavior is an important component of market research, shop location decisions, travel behavior, and consumer behavior studies. This paper estimates a gravity model of travel behaviors related to leisure and shopping trips in the Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, based on a 1998 survey data set by Poisson regression. The overall results indicate that GDP per capita of cities of origin and of destination, population, train stations, and store area of the destination city affect trip flow positively. Intercity distance, store areas in the city of origin, and higher density in the city of origin negatively affect trip flow. Different variables distinctly affect the shopping behavior for different commodities.     

Dual Labor Markets and Trade Reform in China

This paper specifically models rigidities in the labor market in China and analyzes the effect of labor market liberalization on economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results indicate that labor market reforms are essential to the realization of significant gains from China's accession in November 2001 to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the absence of labor market reform, the gains to accession to the WTO are estimated to be minimal.