Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.     

Qualitative Text Analysis Supported by Conceptual Data Systems

Content analysis as a method in social sciences is used to systematically explore textual data. Data resulting from content analysis can be made transparent by saving it in a conceptual data system. This supports its interpretation and reexamination and the process of interpretative theory building. By means of an example of a conceptual data system from musicology, the possibilities and restrictions of this new approach in computer-aided qualitative text research are analyzed. Finally, the approach is discussed as a general method of qualitative formal theory building in the context of content analysis.     

The industrial brand personality scale: Building strong business-to-business brands

To remain distinct and build strong business relationships in a competitive business-to-business (B2B) environment, an increasing number of industrial marketers attempt to exploit the potential of branding. However, brand management in the industrial sector is still at its starting point. For this reason, the authors introduce the concept of brand personality to industrial markets. Based on a series of qualitative and quantitative studies, the authors develop and validate an Industrial Brand Personality Scale. Furthermore, they examine whether brand personality perception differences exist among different types of industrial transactions and among different members in the buying center. The analysis yields a framework for theoretical discussion and provides B2B managers with a tool to build strong B2B brands in an increasingly competitive industrial market.     

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐switching models

Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior.     

Ambush Marketing — ‚Vormarsch‘ des Marketinginstrumentes

Zusammenfassungen  Die Zahl der Ambush-Marketing-praktizierenden Unternehmen übersteigt jene der offiziellen Veranstaltungs-Sponsoren bei Weitem. Dennoch fehlt bislang eine wissenschaftliche Auseinandersetzung mit diesem jungen Kommunikationsinstrument. Lesen Sie in diesem Fachbeitrag, was sich hinter diesem Marketinginstrument tats?chlich verbirgt, wie es in der Sportwelt zielgerichtet eingesetzt werden kann und welche Erfolge damit in der Kommunikationspraxis bereits erzielt wurden. Dr. oec. publ. Uta Jüttner Leiterin des Competence Center für Dienstleistungsmanagement an der Hochschule Luzern und Senior Lecturer an der Cranfield University in England.