Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

Alternative balanced scorecards built from paradigm models in strategic HRM and employment/industrial relations and used to measure the state of employment relations and HR system performance across U.S. workplaces

This paper constructs alternative balanced scorecards based on high‐performance work system (HPWS) and employment relations system (ERS) models. The models are depicted and compared in diagrams and used as framework skeletons for building separate HPWS and ERS scorecards, intended to provide a detailed data picture of the operational health and performance of an organization's employment/HR system and its operations, processes, and inputs/outputs. The scorecards are filled in with nationally representative data from 2,000+ U.S. workplaces using more than 50 employment/HR indicators, as reported by separate panels of managers and employees. The indicators for each workplace are aggregated into an overall HR/employment system score, ranked from low‐to‐high, and graphed as frequency distributions. These distributions provide a unique snapshot picture of the mean and dispersion of the state of employment relations and HR system performance for companies across the United State. They also reveal that “models matter” since the HPWS and ERS scorecards provide distinctly different evaluation assessments.     

Policy capturing in small‐group decision making: Using linear programming to assign factor weights for the NCAA Selection Committee's ranking decisions in the 2016 through 2018 men's basketball tournaments

We present a general approach for applying policy capturing to small‐group decision making and demonstrate the approach with the NCAA Selection Committee's rankings of the 68 teams in the three most recent Division I Men's Basketball Tournaments. We develop a linear programming model that minimizes the extent to which the evaluation of a lower‐ranked team exceeds that of a team ranked immediately above it. The result is a set of linear weights that approximates a group decision when the decision itself is demonstrably internally inconsistent in that a group ranks some teams higher than others despite a lower implied evaluation.     

Use of Derivatives and Analysts’ Forecasts: New Evidence from Non‐financial Brazilian Companies

This study investigates whether market analysts’ forecasts are influenced by the presence of derivative financial instruments in listed firms. From a sample of firms comprising 1173 derivative users and 7797 non‐users for the 2006–14 period, the results indicate the existence of less error behaviour (bias) on earnings per share forecasts for derivative user firms compared to non‐user firms. This finding suggests that these instruments may be used to protect businesses and provide greater stability in the results of companies that use them. The presence of derivative financial instruments is increasing among listed firms, and management can use them for hedging or speculation (thus mitigating or increasing risk). The literature contains few studies on this issue, and the general understanding relies on the assumption that derivative financial instruments provide relevant information for decision making.     

Firm age and performance

Amid increasing interest in firm age and its effects on firm performance, this special issue offers an exhaustive review of the literature and a novel collection of evidence on the effects of firm age on performance, including a special focus of interest on innovation performance, financial performance, exports, survival and growth. This editorial positions the theme in the extant literature, and provides key definitions and challenges ahead in the field of evolutionary economics. It introduces the collection of articles composing the special issue. The papers offer a diversity of country contexts, as well as analytical approaches and methods. They include an exhaustive review of the literature on age and firms’ performance, and present original empirical studies focusing on the effects of age on firms’ economic outcomes on the one hand, and on innovation outcomes on the other hand. While most of the papers use econometric analysis, the level of analysis ranges from firm to individual.     

Reform of European Merger Policy

The paper highlights the main drivers for merger policy reform in the European Union, including the consequences of the recent appeal court reverses. It discusses some of the substantive and procedural issues that the reform package should address, and outlines the reforms in progress. The author concludes that much of the reform package will be beneficial, but some important opportunities have been missed in this inevitably patchwork process.     

Research society: science and technology for the ages

This paper imagines a US society that is obsessed with survival over the very long-term, not just over the next decade or two but over very long-time spans measured in the thousands and millions of years. Given that Americans tend to be achievement-oriented, it is plausible that they could become enthralled with this ultimate challenge. It is folly to argue that a fundamental change in the focus of the national psyche from consumerism to longer-term pursuits will happen anytime soon but the paper suggests that dissatisfaction with consumerism, growing environmentalism, increasingly felt limits of non-renewable resources, the increasing extinction of species, and a tiredness with global power politics as usual and its seemingly inexplicable violence and terrorism can someday lead to archetypal change in our society. In anticipation of this change, this paper presents a roadmap of how we could get from here, consumerism, to there, focused on the journey of life through time and space. The paper also outlines threats that humans must address to maintain the journey of earth-life through time and space; and presents a broad range of activities designed to meet the threats and capitalize on important opportunities. Finally, the paper explores how society would be transformed to meet the challenges and what sectors of today’s economy could be expected to contribute workers to a bourgeoning science and technology workforce and concludes with a few remarks about the future to come.     

An analysis of option pricing under systematic consumption risk using GARCH

An issue in the pricing of contingent claims is whether to account for consumption risk. This is relevant for contingent claims on stock indices, such as the FTSE 100 share price index, as investor’s desire for smooth consumption is often used to explain risk premiums on stock market portfolios, but is not used to explain risk premiums on contingent claims themselves. This paper addresses this fundamental question by allowing for consumption in an economy to be correlated with returns. Daily data on the FTSE 100 share price index are used to compare three option pricing models: the Black–Scholes option pricing model, a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under a risk-neutral framework, and a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under systematic consumption risk. The findings are that accounting for systematic consumption risk only provides improved accuracy for in-the-money call options. When the correlation between consumption and returns increases, the model that accounts for consumption risk will produce lower call option prices than observed prices for in-the-money call options. These results combined imply that the potential consumption-related premium in the market for contingent claims is constant in the case of FTSE 100 index options.