Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

An Evaluation of Alternative Methods of Forecasting Australian Inflation

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecast of Australian inflation based on four alternative procedures: a univariate time series model, an interest rate model, an error correction model and a public survey of inflation forecasts. We derive estimates of expected and unexpected inflation from each of the methods and compare the out-of-sample forecasting results. Based on a range of evaluation criteria, the time series model dominates the other models, with the interest rate model, the error correction model and the survey forecasts following in that order.     

The acceptance and adoption of continuous auditing by internal auditors: A micro analysis

The umbrella of “advanced technology” covers a range of techniques widely used in the U.S. to provide strategic advantage in a very competitive business environment. There is an enormous amount of information contained within current-generation information systems, some of which is processed on a real-time basis. More importantly, the same holds true for actual business transactions. Having accurate and reliable information is vital and advantageous to businesses, especially in the wake of the recent recession. Therefore, the need for ongoing, timely assurance of information utilizing continuous auditing (CA) and continuous control monitoring (CM) methodologies is becoming more apparent. To that end, we have conducted interviews with 22 internal audit managers and 16 internal audit staff members at 9 leading internal audit organizations to examine the status of technology adoption, to evaluate the development of continuous auditing, and to assess the use of continuous control monitoring. We found that several companies in our study were already involved in some form of continuous auditing or control monitoring while others are attempting to adopt more advanced audit technologies. We also made a large number of surprising observations on managerial, technology training and absorption, and other issues. According to our audit maturity model, all of the companies were classified between the “traditional audit” stage and the “emerging stage,” not having yet reached the “continuous audit” stage. This paper,¹ to our knowledge, is the first to study CA technology adoption in a micro level by an interview approach.     

The Australian Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

This study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has significant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one-third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quarters.     

TIME VARYING RISK PREMIUM AND THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF THE AUSTRALIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

Using weekly data on bank accepted bills over the 1976 to 1993 period, this paper provides direct evidence of the presence of a term premium in the Australian term structure. The term premium is shown to vary over time and have an adverse effect on the predictive power of the term structure. The variance of the expected term premium is quantified in terms of its lower bound relative to the upper bound of the variance of the rational expectations error. This ratio is observed to vary over sample sub periods and rise to a high of one in some periods which include the period immediately prior to the market crash.     

REGULARITIES IN THE VARIATION OF SKEWNESS IN ASSET RETURNS

This paper documents regularities in the comparative skewness characteristics across several classes of assets and over time. We find smaller capitalized stock indices are more negatively skewed than larger stock indices. Over time, the skewness of stock indices follows a business-cycle-related variation. Skewness is more negative during economic upturns and less negative, even positive, during downturns. Three alternative methods for testing the statistical significance of skewness and for making confidence interval estimates of skewness are presented. These include a bootstrap methodology and a test that allows for nonindependent observations.     

The case for process mining in auditing: Sources of value added and areas of application

Process mining aims to extract knowledge from the event logs maintained by a company's ERP system. The objective of this paper is to make the case for why internal and external auditors should leverage the capabilities process mining offers to rethink how auditing is carried out. We do so by identifying the sources of value added of process mining when applied to auditing, which are as follows: 1. process mining analyzes the entire population of data and not just a sample; 2. critically that data consists of meta-data—data entered independently of the actions of auditee—and not just data entered by the auditee; 3. process mining allows the auditor to have a more effective way of implementing the audit risk model by providing effective ways of conducting the required walkthroughs of processes and conducting analytic procedures; 4. process mining allows the auditor to conduct analyses not possible with existing audit tools, such as discovering the ways in which business processes are actually being carried out in practice, and to identify social relationships between individuals. It is our argument that these sources of value have not been fully understood in the process mining literature, which has focused on developing it as a statistical methodology rather than on applying it to audit practice. Only when auditors and audit researchers appreciate what is new and unique about process mining will its acceptance in auditing practice become feasible.     

An investigation of the usage of capital budgeting techniques by small and medium enterprises

Quality & Quantity - This paper examines the extent or usage of capital budgeting techniques in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the effect of non-financial factors on the choice of...