Information–driven trading at the Prague Stock Exchange: Evidence from Intra–Day Data

Many observers argue that informed and insider trading is widespread in the emerging financial markets of transition countries, yet rigorous treatment of this issue has been virtually non–existent. The current paper estimates the extent of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) using intra–day transaction data. Our estimates confirm that the average share of informed trading is equal to 0.32, which is high relative to developed markets and varies considerably among stocks. Using the Easley et al. (1996) approach on the very best segment of the PSE we obtained a high average probability of informed trading. Since data used in this study cover the period after the major attempts to improve market regulations, our results indicate that the PSE needs further strengthening to recover credibility and to become a real source of corporate financing. JEL classification: G14, G15.     

The Trade Consequences of Maritime Insecurity: Evidence from Somali Piracy

In the past decade (2000–2010), pirates from Somalia have carried out thousands of attacks on cargo ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, causing what others have identified as significant damage to maritime trade. In this paper, we use variations in the spread and intensity of Somali piracy to estimate its effect on the volume of international trade. By comparing trade volume changes along shipping routes located in pirate waters to those that are not, we estimate that Somali piracy reduced bulk commodities trade passing through the Gulf of Aden by 4.1% per year from 2000 to 2010. We find smaller reductions in total trade, consistent with the fact that not all goods are shipped by sea or are targets of pirate attacks. While our estimates suggest that the trade costs of piracy are much lower than what has been suggested in the existing literature, we find that they remain significant and unevenly distributed, with five countries and the EU shouldering 70% of the total costs.     

When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

Heterogeneity in bank pricing policies: The Czech evidence

We estimate the pass-through from market interest rates to bank interest rates using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to address heterogeneity at the bank level in the Czech Republic. The results indicate heterogeneity in bank pricing in the short, but not in the long term. Mortgage rates and firm rates typically adjust to money market changes, but often less than fully in the long run. Large corporate loans have a smaller mark-up than small loans. Consumer rates have a high mark-up and do not exhibit a cointegration relationship with money market rates even in the long run. Next, we examine how bank characteristics determine the nature of interest rate pass-through in a cross-section of Czech banks. We find evidence for relationship lending, as banks with a stable pool of deposits smooth interest rates and require a higher spread as compensation. Large banks are not found to price their products less competitively. Greater credit risk increases vulnerability to money market shocks.     

Monetary policy inertia reconsidered: Evidence from endogenous interest rate trajectory

By finding small forecastable variability of future policy rates by highly smoothed central bank's endogenous interest rate trajectory, I suggest that market's failure to predict large portion of variability in future rates does not always imply limited policy inertia.     

Long-range meteorological forecasting and links to agricultural applications

Reliable advance information about likely meteorological conditions during an agricultural season can potentially greatly benefit planning, risk management and productivity. In this article, we review the present state of production and dissemination of meteorological long-range (seasonal) forecast information and the use of such products in agricultural applications.There has been rapid development of dynamical prediction systems in particular, and several centres routinely provide seasonal forecasts of rainfall and temperature with global coverage. Currently the uptake of long-range forecast products by users has been limited, and the potential value is far from being attained. Various factors that inhibit usage are described. Further investment in the infrastructure is required, both in creating relevant specific products and in disseminating and applying them effectively. Investment in research is also required to investigate opportunities and beneficial strategies for a wide range of regions and activities, with closer interaction between the meteorological and agricultural communities and relevant intermediary agencies. Such development would complement separate ongoing efforts to improve the meteorological forecast systems and to improve agricultural management and technology.     

The convergence dynamics of a transition economy: The case of the Czech Republic

In this paper we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model by means of which we seek to explain the long-run path of a transition economy. The model's novel feature is the inclusion of quality investment in the standard framework of applied general equilibrium two-country models. This feature is necessary to explain the trend in the real exchange rate. We present an application to the Czech economy.     

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Markets

We provide empirical evidence regarding the responses of Central and Eastern European capital markets to monetary policy via domestic and international short-term interest rate shocks. The analysis is conducted using a four-variable structural vector error correction model identified by means of permanent-transitory restrictions. The results indicate a noticeable effect of the international interest rate on stock market indexes in the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Since no monetary policy autonomy exists in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania, we find support only for the inverse relationship between foreign interest rate and stock index prices.     

The Media Impact of Board Member Appointments in Spanish-Listed Companies: A Gender Perspective

Recent corporate governance literature on gender diversity within boards has linked the effect of an increase in gender diversity to the firm’s corporate reputation. This paper analyzes the media impact of appointing new directors of Spanish companies at a particularly significant moment, during the period from 2007 to 2010, just a year before and 3 years after the Gender Equality Act was passed. By analyzing female and male board nominations in Spanish IBEX-35 companies, the paper examines whether appointing a female does have greater visibility than appointing a male, and thus a potential signaling effect for corporate stakeholders and an effect on the firm’s reputation. Results indicate that the effect on press visibility of appointing a female versus a male is negligible, although there is significant media visibility for new executive directors, in particular for the case of the only woman nominated as an executive director during the period. The paper contributes to the existing literature on gender diversity in corporate governance, specifically its effect on corporate reputation. The paper also offers information relevant to policy making and in particular to the current debate over quotas for women on boards.