Tasks and Organizations: A Signal Detection Model of Organizational Decision Making

This paper presents a mathematical model to study the joint impact of organizational design and of the task environment on the decision performance of hierarchical organizations with limited internal communication. The problem context is a special class of distributed situation assessment problems, where possible patterns of binary variables are to be classified on the basis of partial and noise-corrupted information. Structural properties of tasks and organizations are described using a graph formalism, and optimal decision strategies at all decision makers are determined. Organizational expertise is characterized in the form of a Team Relative Operating Characteristic (TROC) curve, thereby replacing the organization by an equivalent single decision maker. Implementing the model, issues of task decomposition and the process of matching organizations with tasks are discussed.     

The Monetary Multiplier

After modelling the circulation of money as a Markov chain, a special multiplier is set up, explained and investigated. It describes, in mathematical terms, the enlivening course of new money, or the propagation of a monetary injection into a given economy, which David Hume inspected in his famous essay. Some explanation is given to why he considered it, justly, as a transitory phenomenon.     

Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach

In state–space models, parameter learning is practically difficult and is still an open issue. This paper proposes an efficient simulation-based parameter learning method. First, the approach breaks up the interdependence of the hidden states and the static parameters by marginalizing out the states using a particle filter. Second, it applies a Bayesian resample-move approach to this marginalized system. The methodology is generic and needs little design effort. Different from batch estimation methods, it provides posterior quantities necessary for full sequential inference and recursive model monitoring. The algorithm is implemented both on simulated data in a linear Gaussian model for illustration and comparison and on real data in a Lévy jump stochastic volatility model and a structural credit risk model.     

SOCIAL DISCOUNTING AND THE LONG RATE OF INTEREST

The well‐known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll, and Ross shows that the long zero‐coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long‐term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in the setting of modern interest rate theory, and show that if the long “simple” interest rate (or Libor rate) is finite, then this rate (unlike the zero‐coupon rate) acts viably as a state variable, the value of which can fluctuate randomly in line with other economic indicators. New interest rate models are constructed, under this hypothesis and certain generalizations thereof, that illustrate explicitly the good asymptotic behavior of the resulting discount bond systems. The conditions necessary for the existence of such “hyperbolic” and “generalized hyperbolic” long rates are those of so‐called social discounting, which allow for long‐term cash flows to be treated as broadly “just as important” as those of the short or medium term. As a consequence, we are able to provide a consistent arbitrage‐free valuation framework for the cost‐benefit analysis and risk management of long‐term social projects, such as those associated with sustainable energy, resource conservation, and climate change.     

Transformational Leadership: Managing the Twenty‐First Century Sales Force

In today's more diverse sales organizations, sales managers face important interpersonal challenges to achieving high‐quality relationships, which result in better performance within their sales force. In this article, it is argued that cultural distance can negatively influence sales manager and sales subordinate relationships. The quality of these relationships ultimately influences the level of effort that sales subordinates exert toward achieving organizational sales goals. However, despite the potential obstacle of cultural distance, sales managers can utilize transformational leadership as a means to mitigate its adverse effects on one‐to‐one relationships with members of the sales force.     

Comparing the patronage selection criteria of the elderly: chronological age versus dependency

This study investigates the impact of the degree of retailer international involvement (DRII), which we define as the number of geographic regions in which a retailer operates, on retailer performance. The data cover 16 international retailers over the period 1996–2012. The findings of the study show that DRII is negatively related to retailer performance. We also find that the cultural distance between the home and host country moderates the relationship between DRII and retailer performance.