Transitions from home to marriage of young Americans

The paper examines the impact of income on the transitions between home, living independently and first marriage of young Americans. A matching model is outlined, similar to that used in theories of job search, to explain the probability of marriage and living alone. A multiple‐state, multiple‐transition model which allows for correlated heterogeneity on the first and subsequent transitions is estimated. The results show that income has a strong and significant effect. The impact of unobserved heterogeneity is examined in detail. The impact of the young person's earnings on the transitions is explored through simulation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Health information and diet choices: Results from a cheese experiment

This study reports results from a choice experiment on semi-hard cheese from Norway. About half of the 408 participants were exposed to diet-related health information before performing either a choice or a ranking task, while a control group did not receive such information. The effects of health information on marginal willingness to pay for low-saturated-fat, low-fat and organic cheese are analyzed using rank-ordered mixed logit models. Cheese preferences are clearly affected by exposure to health information. On average, the health information group is willing to pay a price premium of 27.2% (NOK 24.5 per kg) for low-saturated-fat cheese and 14.4% (NOK 13.0 per kg) for low-fat cheese. This is respectively 1.73 and 2.89 times more than corresponding price premiums in the control group. Non-college, medium–high income, age 50–70 and female participants are more clearly affected by health information than college, low income, age 30–49 and male participants. Subjective statements on diet-health knowledge and awareness are used to discuss these findings. Our results suggest that provision of health information is likely to reduce educational differences in diet-health knowledge and thus dietary behavior. Low income participants seem to be constrained by high food prices, but not by lack of knowledge or awareness. Finally, due to lack of diet-health awareness, reaching out to young people and particularly males through health information policies seems difficult.     

The role of villages in households’ poverty exit: evidence from a multilevel model for rural Vietnam

Vietnam experienced a dramatic drop in overall poverty during the 90s. However, the poverty reduction showed substantial variation across households, villages and regions. Using a multilevel model on panel data from the rural sample of the Vietnam Living Standard Measurement Survey we demonstrate the important role of villages in household poverty exit dynamics. We also show how an analysis of village-level random effects predictions can help targeting of policies to reduce poverty.     

Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods

This article aims to answer to what extent fertility has a causal effect on households’ economic wellbeing—an issue that has received considerable interest in development studies and policy analysis. However, only recently has this literature begun to give importance to adequate modelling for estimation of causal effects. We discuss several strategies for causal inference, stressing that their validity must be judged on the assumptions we can plausibly formulate in a given application, which in turn depends on the richness of available data. We contrast methods relying on the unconfoundedness assumption, which include regressions and propensity score matching, with instrumental variable methods. This discussion has a general importance, representing a set of guidelines that are useful for choosing an appropriate strategy of analysis. The discussion is valid for both cross-sectional or panel data.