Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices

We characterize generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) risk preferences that can overweight lower‐tail outcomes relative to expected utility. We show in an endowment economy that recursive utility with GDA risk preferences generates effective risk aversion that is countercyclical. This feature comes from endogenous variation in the probability of disappointment in the representative agent's intertemporal consumption‐saving problem that underlies the asset pricing model. The variation in effective risk aversion produces a large equity premium and a risk‐free rate that is procyclical and has low volatility in an economy with a simple autoregressive endowment‐growth process.     

Towards a Unifying Model of Systems of Law, Corporate Financing, Accounting and Corporate Governance

Several authors have observed a relationship between a country's type of legal system and its style of financial reporting. Generally, the causality is presumed to be from legal system to accounting system. However, one model of accounting differences suggests that the type of accounting is an influence on the regulatory system rather than vice versa. This helps to explain why the Netherlands has Roman law but approximately Anglo-Saxon accounting. It also allows for the extensive use by European companies of US or international rules. This paper expands on these themes, and extends the model to include corporate governance.     

Monetary Expansion in an Open Economy of Intermediate Size*

This paper introduces a monetary asset, perceived as an addition to wealth, into a two-country neoclassical model of accumulation. As domestic monetary expansion changes, demand for the investment good is shifted. This alters the terms and level of trade as well as production and shifts the balanced growth paths of both economies. For a non-specialized world it is found that an increase in domestic monetary expansion will increase the domestic overall capital intensity, decrease the foreign overall capital intensity, and worsen the terms of trade for the country importing the investment good.     

An Analytical Model for External Auditor Evaluation of the Internal Audit Function Using Belief Functions

The purpose of this paper is to advance research in internal audit (IA) evaluation by developing an IA assessment model that considers interrelationships among specific factors used by external auditors to evaluate the strength of the IA function. The model is based on three factors identified by auditing standards and by prior academic research: Competence, Work Performance, and Objectivity. We develop an analytical expression of the model using the belief function framework in order to overcome limitations of prior research. Our results reveal that modeling the “And” relationship is essential for assessing the strength of the IA function. As far as interrelationships are concerned, the analysis shows that, when the three factors have a strong or a perfect relationship, the strength of the IA function remains high even if there is positive or negative evidence about one of the factors. This result holds as long as there are high levels of belief about the other two factors. Further, we demonstrate how the quality of corporate governance affects the evaluation of the IA function and how a cost–benefit analysis can be applied to this framework to help determine the amount of external audit work needed to comply with standards. Our analysis reveals that the extent of external audit work to be carried out by the external auditor depends on the strength of the IA function and the amount of litigation and regulatory costs likely to be faced by the external auditor.     

Market Expectations in the Cross‐Section of Present Values

Returns and cash flow growth for the aggregate U.S. stock market are highly and robustly predictable. Using a single factor extracted from the cross‐section of book‐to‐market ratios, we find an out‐of‐sample return forecasting R² of 13% at the annual frequency (0.9% monthly). We document similar out‐of‐sample predictability for returns on value, size, momentum, and industry portfolios. We present a model linking aggregate market expectations to disaggregated valuation ratios in a latent factor system. Spreads in value portfolios’ exposures to economic shocks are key to identifying predictability and are consistent with duration‐based theories of the value premium.