Modeling Criminal Activity in an Area in Economic Decline: Local Economic Conditions Are a Major Factor in Local Property Crimes

A bstract . A multi-factor model includes economic, apprehension, seasonal a n d plant closing variables as the explanatory regressors and crimes against property as the dependent variable. Different lag structures were used on the explanatory variables such as an Almon distributed lag of a second degree polynominal nature and the lagging of the dependent variable by one quarter so that the model would more closely approximate the environment being considered. The results suggest a definite seasonal pattern in crimes against property, and the economic variables measuring local, not national, conditions, appear to be more significant regressors than any other explanatory variables.