The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

Polarities between Naturalism and Non-Naturalism in Contemporary Economics: An Overview

We provide a dynamic model of banking competition, in which bounded rationality of some competitors explains how the credit cycle is intensified. We model the economic cycle following Tobias F. Rötheli (2012b), who argues that boundedly rational banks, in their Bayesian learning, overestimate the probability of success during booms and underestimate it during recessions. We obtain three main results. First, the model suggests that pessimism/underconfidence is not a powerful driver of credit cycles. Instead, it supports the conclusion that it is euphoria during large upswings that leads to the next crunch. Second, the dynamization of the model provides further insight into the way boundedly rational competition intensifies the credit cycle. Third, it additionally predicts that the effects of behavioral biases are more pervasive when the quality of the niche markets is lower.     

An integrated framework for the conceptualization of consumers’ perceived-risk processing

Research on risk is built on a complex array of diverse and sometimes inconsistent definitions, constructs, models, and outcomes. This study examines various literatures to formulate an integrated framework for the conceptualization of perceived-risk processing. The framework specifies three phases (framing, assessment, and evaluation) and their accompanying outcomes of risk attention, perceived risk, and risk-taking propensity. Explicit linkages are specified between situational and individual characteristics. Perceived-risk evaluation is identified as concepturally distinct from assessment of perceived risk, and the construct of risk-taking propensity is separated from those of risk affinity and perceived risk. The framework further presents points of intersection between the literatures on perceived risk and the literatures on consumer decision-making, information search, and satisfaction. Finally, it serves as an anchor for framing future research to promote conceptual and methodological consistency, and to guide progress in directions that are consistent with some leading edge paradigms outside of marketing. Margy P. Conchar (concharm@mail.ecu.edu; Ph.D., University of Georgia) is an assistant professor at East Carolina University. Her research focuses on consumer behavior and advertising. Her work in consumer behavior concentrates on risk, motives, and optimal consumption experience. Her research in advertising focuses on the interface between advertising and finance, accounting, or economics. She has previously published in the proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Association for Consumer Research, the American Marketing Association of Educators, and the Society for Marketing Advances. George M. Zinkhan (gzinkhan@terry.uga.edu; Ph.D., University of Michigan) is the Coca-Cola Company Chair of Marketing at the University of Georgia. His major research interests include advertising, promotion, e-commerce, and knowledge development. Two of his recent coauthored books includeConsumers (2004, McGraw-Hill) andElectronic Commerce: A Strategic Perspective (2000, Dryden). Cara Peters (petersc@winthrop.edu; Ph.D., University of Nebraska) is an assistant professor at Winthrop University. Her research lies in the general areas of consumer behavior and e-commerce. Primarily using mixed methods, she examines risky consumer behaviors as they relate to sociology and psychology. She has published in theJournal of Consumer Psychology andConsumption, Markets, and Culture, among other journals. Sergio Olavarrieta (solavar@negocios.uchile.cl; Ph.D., University of Georgia) is an assistant professor at Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile. He is assistant dean of undergraduate programs at the School of Business and Economics at the University of Chile. His research focuses on branding and marketing strategy. He has previously published in theJournal of Strategic Marketing and theInternational Journal of Product Distribution and Logistics Management.     

Segmenting the College Educated Generation Y Health and Wellness Traveler

Generation Y is considered to be the next largest cohort group to significantly impact the health and wellness travel industry. This study sought to create a profile of the Gen Y health and wellness traveler using push and pull motivations and perceived wellness. K-means clustering revealed five distinct traveler segments. Wellness was found to be a motivating factor as well as the other internal and external motivators used in this study. Men were found to travel more for escape and women for the nightlife. Opportunities to both seek and avoid contact with others were revealed. Suggestions for future marketing messages for the Gen Y wellness traveler are offered.     

The behavior of consumer loan rates during the 1990 credit slowdown

This study re-examines the 1990 credit slowdown by investigating the loan pricing behavior of commercial banks. We find strong evidence that large, undercapitalized banks contributed to the credit slowdown by charging consumers a higher-than-average loan rate relative to better-capitalized institutions. This disparity in lending exists even after accounting for bank funding costs. Thus, we argue that there was a lending slowdown that occurred among large, undercapitalized banks. The reluctance to lend among undercapitalized banks is at least suggestive of behavior that is consistent with a credit crunch.     

Bank credit and economic activity: Evidence from the texas banking decline

In the latter half of the 1980s, banking difficulties were concentrated in Texas. Because of the magnitude of these financial difficulties, interest has focused on whether an alleged inability or unwillingness of Texas banks to extend loans hampered economic growth in the state. Using various measures of banking-sector activity and economic activity in Texas over the period 1976:I-1990:IV, a structural VAR model of the Texas economy is estimated. Variance decompositions measure the interdependence of the banking and real sectors of the economy. Our results indicate a strong effect from the real sector to the financial sector. We find little evidence, though, that the deterioration observed in the Texas banking sector contributed to reduced economic growth.     

Managing information sharing and stewardship for public-sector collaboration: a management control approach

Information sharing is essential for public-sector collaboration but needs to be balanced with information stewardship obligations. There is little research on how public-sector managers can influence the attitudes and behaviours of their employees to achieve these competing objectives. To investigate this, the study applies a management control framework to a case study of a law enforcement organization attempting to improve its information sharing and stewardship. The study extends prior literature by providing insights into the specific effects that different management controls have for the information sharing and stewardship behaviours of employees involved in public-sector collaboration.     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

Application of Multilevel Models to Structured Repeated Measurements

The linear mixed-effects model has been widely used for the analysis of continuous longitudinal data. This paper demonstrates that the linear mixed model can be adapted and used for the analysis of structured repeated measurements. A computational advantage of the proposed methodology is that there is no extra burden on the analyst since any software for linear mixed-effects models can be used to fit the proposed models. Two data sets from clinical psychology are used as motivating examples and to illustrate the methods.