Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Reconciling introspective utility with revealed preference: Experimental arguments based on prospect theory

In an experiment, choice-based (revealed-preference) utility of money is derived from choices under risk, and choiceless (non-revealed-preference) utility from introspective strength-of-preference judgments. The well-known inconsistencies of risky utility under expected utility are resolved under prospect theory, yielding one consistent cardinal utility index for risky choice. Remarkably, however, this cardinal index also agrees well with the choiceless utilities, suggesting a relation between a choice-based and a choiceless concept. Such a relation implies that introspective judgments can provide useful data for economics, and can reinforce the revealed-preference paradigm. This finding sheds new light on the classical debate on ordinal versus cardinal utility.     

Spouses' materialism: Effects of parenthood status,personality type,and sex

This study responds to a call for broadened conceptualizations of materialism and its role in self-definition (Richins & Dawson, 1992). Data from 202 spouses were analyzed for relationships among materialism, parenthood status, and personality type, defined as spousal warmness or coolness (Csikszentmihalyi & Rochberg-Halton, 1981). Testable hypotheses were based on the concept of object-subject interchangeability (Claxton & Murray, 1994) as a mechanism of self-definition. The hypothesis was supported that cool spouses without children would have the highest materialism score. Total sample materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to several interactions among parenthood status, personality type, and sex of respondent. Analyzed by sex of respondent, men's materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to the interaction between parenthood status and personality type. Women's materialism scores were not related to any independent variables or interactions. Consumer policy implications are discussed.

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Zusammenfassung Materialismus von Ehegatten: Effekte von Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht Die Studie reagiert auf die Forderung nach einer breiteren Konzeptualisierung der Materialismus-Variable und der Rolle von Materialismus bei der Selbst-Definition. Die Daten stammen von 202 Ehegatten und wurden auf die Beziehungen hin analysiert, die zwischen Materialismus, Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp (definiert als eheliche WÄrme und eheliche Nüchternheit) bestehen. Die Hypothesen basieren auf dem Konzept der Objekt-Subjekt-Austauschbarkeit als Mechanismus der Selbst-Definition. BestÄtigt wurde die Hypothese, da\ nüchterne Ehegatten ohne Kinder den höchsten Materialismuswert haben. Insgesamt waren die Materialismuswerte abhÄngig von der Variable Elternschaft und von mehreren Wechselwirkungen zwischen Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht des Antwortenden. Eine geschlechtsspezifische Analyse zeigt, da\ die Materialismuswerte der MÄnner mit Elternschaft und mit der Wechselwirkung zwischen Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp verbunden sind. Bei den Materialismuswerten der Frauen zeigte sich keine Beziehung zu einer der unabhÄngigen Variablen oder den Wechselwirkungen. Der Beitrag schlie\t mit einigen verbraucherpolitischen Implikationen.

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The study is based on the first author's dissertation. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of a 1993 summer research grant from East Carolina University, and the reviewers' helpful comments.     

Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations

Although there are several mechanisms within theoretical models acknowledging that supply shocks can account for an important part of output fluctuations, even in the short-run, policy practitioners continue endorsing the idea that only demand shocks explain them. This article provides empirical evidence on several Latin American countries and the USA to show that the share of output variance explained by supply shocks in the short-run is substantial. It also offers a more agnostic implementation of the Blanchard–Quah type of structural analysis that focuses on policy evaluation. For this purpose, we propose constructing two indicators out of the historical decomposition of shocks: the goods market unbalance (GMU) and the total cyclical fluctuations (TCF). While GMU is an excess demand measurement that reveals the scope of the distortions caused by shocks, TCF, combined with GMU, helps to understand what type of shock is predominantly explaining (output and inflation) fluctuations. These two pieces of information provide a very different diagnosis than traditional output gaps and should guide monetary policy interventions more adequately. The agnosticism of this proposal has two aspects: the use of a different identification strategy and the assessment of the effects of both supply and demand shocks on output.

     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Tipping the scale? The workings of monetary policy through trade

The monetary policy entails demand‐augmenting and diverting effects, and its impact on the trade balance—and on other countries—depends on the magnitude of these opposing effects. Using U.S. data and a sign‐restricted structural vector autoregressive identification, we investigate the importance of these effects. Overall, the results indicate that a monetary loosening (tightening) leads to a strengthening (weakening) of the overall trade balance, indicating that demand diversion dominates. The paper also explores changes in the effects following the global financial crisis, reflecting the impaired monetary transmission mechanism.     

Service innovation as a political process

Service innovation processes are driven by stakeholders in interaction and are understood and sketched as a value negotiation process that consists of an iterative process of securing potential value in service. While previous research has focused on service innovation as a harmonious closed system, our study explores service innovation as a political process in which stakeholders negotiate to create and secure future value. Data are collected through interviews and participant observations in four different case studies. Our study contributes to the field by illuminating service innovation as a political process and explaining how this is operationalized. The findings also contribute to an understanding of how stakeholder resources impact a chosen strategy; the resulting strategy’s impact on the service concept vis-à-vis its potential value; and how several involved stakeholders formulate, negotiate, and secure future potential value, which are the activities that drive a service innovation process.     

Auditing Goodwill in the Post‐Amortization Era: Challenges for Auditors

The elimination of goodwill amortization in 2001 brought about significant change in how companies are required to account for goodwill. This change in accounting also brought with it new challenges for auditors, namely evaluating the reasonableness of management's assumptions related to goodwill valuation. In addition to introducing technical challenges, this task is particularly difficult given the misalignment in incentives it creates between managers who likely prefer to avoid recording an impairment and auditors who seek to minimize the bias in management's impairment testing. This study focuses on the consequences of the misaligned incentives that auditors face under the current goodwill assessment process. We find that the decision to record a goodwill impairment is associated with an increase in the probability of auditor dismissal. Consistent with the presence of significant friction with clients, our results also indicate that the likelihood of auditor dismissals is negatively related to the favorability of the impairment decision. Furthermore, we find that companies impairing goodwill prior to dismissing auditors subsequently employ auditors that are, on average, more favorable to clients in their impairment decisions.     

Impact of Auditor Report Changes on Financial Reporting Quality and Audit Costs: Evidence from the United Kingdom

While substantial revisions to auditor reporting requirements are being implemented internationally, the impact of these reforms on financial reporting quality is unknown. We exploit the United Kingdom's recent auditor reporting changes and find that the United Kingdom's new reporting regime is associated with an improvement in financial reporting quality as proxied by significant decreases in absolute abnormal accruals and the propensity to just meet or beat analyst forecasts, and a significant increase in earnings response coefficients. As for audit costs, we do not find a significant change in audit fees or audit delay surrounding the implementation of the new reporting regime. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that new auditor reporting requirements are associated with a significant improvement in financial reporting quality without detecting a significant increase in audit costs.     

After over 25 years of accrediting beaches,has Blue Flag contributed to sustainable management?

This paper examines the qualitative, quantitative, and geographical evolution (1987–2012) of the Blue Flag campaign and accreditation process in Spain, a leading coastal tourism destination heading the list of awards. The standard Blue Flag criteria for crowded, developed beaches are now adapting to new demands for natural beaches, but they still fail to capture essential sustainable tourism features, such as limiting user numbers, or preserving and restoring sand ecosystems. Given these shortcomings, some destinations are moving to alternative awards with a higher environmental commitment, such as EMS, ISO14001, and Eco-Management and Audit Schemes (EMAS). A cluster analysis of Blue Flag data for 983 beaches in Spain over 26 years revealed different behaviour patterns: established tourist areas that have always opted for the Blue Flag programme; tourist areas that adopted the Blue Flag early on but replaced it with ISO14001 and EMAS; recently developed destinations applying for the award to boost their tourism promotion; and tourist areas with no well-defined policy that have opted intermittently for Blue Flag. These profiles illustrate the different policies of Spain's Autonomous Regions, and they are useful for tourism managers to verify whether their destination's behaviour pattern contributes to sustainable tourism and matches strategic policies they have designed for them.