Financial instability and the real economy

Summary The paper deals with three different areas of the financial sphere: national moneys, exchange rates and financial claims, markets and institutions. For each of them, it tries to identify the main forms of instability which may occur, their causes and consequences for the real economy. Depending on the area concerned, the forms of instability include inflation, fluctuations and misalignments in interest rates, exchange rates and asset prices and finally solvency and liquidity crises of institutions. It is concluded that, over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in the policy framework to counteract instabilities in the national and monetary spheres. The conclusion is more mixed with regard to the structure of financial markets.[/p]We are grateful to Julian Alworth, Svein Andresen, Gavin Bingham, Joe Bisignano, Michael Hutchison and Paul van den Bergh for useful comments.     

Towards a Macroprudential Framework for Financial Supervision and Regulation?

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instabilityhas risen to the top of the policy agenda. This essay arguesthat in order to improve the safeguards against financial instability,it may be desirable to strengthen further the macroprudentialorientation of current prudential frameworks, a process thatis already under way. The essay defines, compares and contraststhe macro- and microprudential dimensions that inevitably coexistin financial regulatory and supervisory arrangements, examinesthe nature of financial instability against this backgroundand draws conclusions about the broad outline of desirable policyefforts.(JEL G2) "Words, like nature, half reveal and half conceal the soul within" Alfred Lord Tennyson "When I use a word... it just means what I choose it to mean– neither more, nor less" Humpty Dumpty     

Regulatory Uncertainty and Share Price Volatility: the English and Welsh Water Industry’s Periodic Price Review

This paper models the London stock markets response to the 1994 Periodic Review of prices in the English and Welsh water industry using both GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The results indicate that a significant reduction in the volatility of share prices for eight of the ten water and sewerage companies followed the announcement of revised industry price-caps. Investor expectations adjusted rapidly, reflecting confidence in the credibility and political sustainability of the settlement.     

THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAY GAP IN FRANCE, GREAT BRITAIN AND ITALY

We investigate public–private pay determination using French, British and Italian microdata. While traditional methods focus on parametric methods to estimate the public sector pay gap, in this paper, we use both non-parametric (kernel) and quantile regression methods to analyze the distribution of wages across sectors. We show that the public–private (hourly) wage differential is sensitive to the choice of quantile and that the pattern of premia varies with both gender and skill. In all countries the public sector is found to pay more to low skilled workers with respect to the private sector, whilst the reverse is true for high skilled workers. When comparing results across countries, we find that where pay formation is more regulated (i.e. as in France and Italy) the public sector pay gap is smaller; whilst where market factors play a larger role in pay determination (i.e. as in Great Britain) the public sector pay gap is larger—particularly in the lower part of the wage distribution—and females are much better off in the public sector as compared to the private sector.     

Organizing for continuous technology acquisition: the role of R&D geographic dispersion

External technology acquisition has been proved to be an important strategy to enhance firms’ innovation performance. However, previous studies claim that companies acquiring technologies tend to not carry on with this strategy over time, thus limiting their attitude toward continuous technology acquisition. Moreover, the extant literature also highlights that this attitude is strongly influenced by their organizational structure. Therefore, in the present paper, we investigate the relationship between how firms organize R&D activities and continuous technology acquisition. Specifically, given the increasing globalization of technological development, we focus on the role of R&D geographic dispersion, and how its influence is moderated by firms’ technological diversification. We tested our hypotheses on longitudinal data of 303 biotechnology firms that acquired, at least, one USPTO patented technology over the period 1982–2012. Results reveal that R&D geographic dispersion is curvilinearly (inverted U-shaped) related to continuous technology acquisition, with negative returns occurring earlier in technology-diversified companies.     

Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule

Corporate managers typically estimate the value of capital projects by discounting the project's expected future net cash flows at the cost of capital. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is generally used to estimate that cost. But, as anyone who has worked on the finance or business development staff of a public company can attest, there are major challenges in applying the CAPM, including largely unresolved questions about what constitutes the “market portfolio,” how to estimate market risk premiums, and how to estimate the betas of projects. In a short article published in Financial Management in 1988, Fischer Black proposed a valuation “discounting rule” that avoids all these problems—one that involves discounting a relatively certain (as opposed to an expected or average) level of operating cash flows at the risk-free rate. But Black's article does not address the question of how to calculate these “certainty equivalent” or “conditional” cash flows. In this article, the authors propose a way of implementing Black's rule that involves estimating the “conditional” cash flows in a three-step procedure:

• • Find a benchmark security that correlates with the project's cash flows;
• • Estimate the percentiles of the distribution in which the benchmark return equals the risk-free rate over different investment horizons;
• • Use information from corporate managers to assess the cash flows that define the same percentiles in the cash flow distributions.

As the authors point out, the virtue of Black's rule is that it shifts the focus of the analyst away from the assessment of discount factors and puts it squarely on the more challenging, and arguably more relevant, problem of estimating the project's cash flows.     

Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

What Affects New and Established Firms’ Expansion? Evidence from Small Firms in Russia

Research on financial constraints of very small firms is scarce because it is difficult to observe and measure their transactions. Previous studies on small enterprises in post-communist countries have focused either on the effect of financing constraints on business growth (Budina et al., 2000, Economics of Transition 8(2), 453–475; Bratkowski et al., 2000, Economics of Transition 8(1), 101–116) or on the effect of property rights (Johnson et al., 2002, American Economic Review 92(5), 1335–1357). This paper provides evidence on both. It turns out that financing constraints and property rights considerations affects investment in firms of different age differently. Younger firms face higher information costs and their expansion is more dependent on the availability of internal funds than is the expansion of older firms. This paper also finds that while the financial sector did not channel funds to the most successful businesses, there is evidence that loans were given to firms that had more transparent transactions. Results also indicate that the security of property rights does not influence investment in young firms, which is interpreted to mean that only the most efficient entrepreneurs entered the market. In older small firms, investment is negatively influenced by the index of security of property rights suggesting that these firms might have “secured” their property rights by bribes. Improvements in the security of property rights, therefore, would help more micro enterprises to be born as well as decrease transaction cost of established enterprises.      

Mobility and the Role of Education as a Commitment Device

In closed economies, human capital investment faces a hold-up problem of excessive redistributive taxation. Increased international labor mobility, however, changes the constraints which affect optimal education and tax policy. We show that in a non-altruistic, gerontocratic world, investments in human capital which increase the mobility of the young generation can be interpreted as a commitment device overcoming the hold-up problem. This is in line with Kehoe (1989) who derives a similar result with respect to capital mobility.     

Mergers with interfirm bundling: a case of pharmaceutical cocktails

Pharmaceutical cocktails often consist of two or more drugs produced by competing firms. The component drugs are often also sold as stand‐alone products. We analyze the effects of a merger between two pharmaceutical firms selling complements for colorectal cancer treatment. In this setting there are two merger effects: the standard upward pricing pressure due to firms internalizing the substitution between the stand‐alone products, and an additional effect where the firms internalize the impact of selling complements and reduce the price of the cocktail product. The net impact of a merger is a modest price increase, or even a price decrease.