The α-stable processes and their relationship with the exponent of self-similarity: Exchange rates of USA Dollar,Canadian Dollar,Euro and Yen

This research work analyzes the yields of the exchange rate parities of the American dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, and Yen; estimates the basic statistics and the α-stables; carries out the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Lilliefors goodness of fit tests; estimates the self-similar exponents and carries out the t and F tests, ruling out that the series of parities are multifractal. It also estimates the confidence intervals of the exchange rate parities and concludes that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the Gaussian distribution to quantify the risks of the market, and that the series are self-similar. Through the ? index, we can infer the risk of the events, indicating that the parities are anti-persistent and thus have short-term memory, mean reversion, and a negative correlation with the high risk in the short and medium term. The estimation and validation of the α-stable distributions and the self-similar exponent are important in the evaluation and creation of innovative investment instruments through financial engineering, risk administration, and the evaluation of derived products.     

Pricing of a structured product on the SX5E when the uncertainty of returns is modeled as a log-stable process

This work presents the participation factor and the valuation of a first-generation structured product with European call options on the Eurostoxx, when the uncertainty of the yields is modeled through log-stable processes. The basic statistics of the index yields are also exposed, the α-stable parameters are estimated, and the valuation of the of the structured models is compared through the log-stable and log-Gaussian models using inputs from the bond markets; concluding that investors obtain higher yields than those of the bond market through both models, and that the differences of the yields depend on the participation factor and on the value of the index at the time of liquidation.     

The reliability of self-reported home values in a developing country context

This paper provides an analysis, in the context of a developing country, of the reliability of homeowners’ estimates of the value of their houses, as obtained through a household survey. We show that non-response to the home value question by the owner is uncorrelated with the appraised value of the house and other demographic characteristics of the respondent. We also document that homeowners with long tenure largely overestimate the value of their home. Moreover, both the bias and the lack of precision in homeowners’ estimates are correlated with tenure, but not with socioeconomic characteristics. However, we also show that self-reported home values from short-tenure homeowners can be used to obtain unbiased and precise estimates of the average house value at the census tract level.     

The Price of Team Spirit for Sensemaking Through Task Discourse in Innovation Teams

Despite interest in innovation teams, we have only limited insights into how team members make sense of innovation teams’ inherent ambiguity. By referring to the sensemaking literature and to the research on task discourse, our study introduces task discourse as a valuable sensemaking mechanism in innovation teams. We argue that team creativity and feasibility testing increases the need for task discourse, which in turn improves team performance. Beyond this, we consider ambivalent effects of team spirit. On the one hand, team spirit allows leveraging smoothly synergies to emerge but on the other hand, high team spirit can limit team member’s willingness to challenge each other’s different perspectives and opinions critically. Data on 250 innovation teams of German manufacturing teams support the assumed beneficial effects of task discourse and the ambivalent effect of team spirit. Teams need sensemaking through task discourse when they want to achieve benefits from team creativity. The total effect of creativity on team performance is insignificant, while the indirect effect of team creativity on team performance is significantly positive. Our study enriches current research on ambiguity and sensemaking in innovation teams, answers the call to elaborate benefits and drawbacks team spirit might bring to teams, and provides valuable managerial implications.     

UK charter flight package holidays to the Mediterranean, 1970–1978: A statistical analysis

This article explores the commonly held view that there is a direct relationship between prices of and demand for holidays. A detailed investigation is undertaken into one aspect of tourism demand — the demand for medium-distance inclusive tour charter flights from Europe to Mediterranean resorts for the 1970–78 period. From this the price-demand relationship is rigorously analysed. The UK is taken as the case-study.     

The impact of scale effects on the prevailing internet-based banking model in the US

Internet-based banks use a technology-intensive production process that may benefit from scale effects as they grow larger. This article analyzes whether the predominant Internet-primary bank in the USA generates technology-based economies of scale in the period 2002–2010. There is evidence of both favorable and adverse technology-based scale effects. As the leading Internet-primary bank gets larger, the financial performance gap with traditional banks shrinks while some of its critical competitive advantages wear down. The results suggest that unless the prevailing Internet-primary bank preserves the distinctive advantages of the Internet-based business model as it improves financial performance, it might end up converging with its branching competitors.     

Valuación de un producto estructurado de compra sobre el SX5E cuando la incertidumbre de los rendimientos está modelada con procesos log-estables

We report the participation level, we pricing a first generation's European call options on the Eurostoxx structured product, when returns’ uncertainty is modeled by log-stable processes, we present the basic statistics of the index's returns, we estimate the α-estable parameters, and we compare the structured products pricing by the both log-stable and log-Gaussian models using inputs of the debt markets. We conclude that investors get higher returns than debt markets using both models and returns’ differences depend of the participation level and the maturity.     

Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks

The objective of this study is to analyse volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the financial market responses to the September 11, March 11 and July 7 terrorist attacks. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the turmoil periods themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the financial market responses to the terrorist attacks. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impacts that terrorist attacks had on both markets.     

Extreme value theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns – S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 – representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student's t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions.     

Green and Good? The Investment Performance of US Environmental Mutual Funds

Increased concern for the environment has increased the number of investment opportunities in mutual funds specialized in promoting responsible environmental attitudes. This article examines the performance and risk sensitivities of US green mutual funds vis-à-vis their conventional peers. We also analyze and compare this performance relative to other socially responsible investing (SRI) mutual funds. In order to implement this analysis, we apply a CAPM-based methodology and find that in the 1987–2009 period, environ- mental funds had lower performance than conventional funds with similar characteristics. However, if we focus on a more recent period (2001–2009), green funds achieved adjusted returns not significantly different from the rest of SRI and conventional mutual funds.