信贷资产证券化:法律障碍与解决对策

在我国,随着期限较长的贷款在银行贷款业务中所占比重的不断加大,“短存长贷”的矛盾和资金短缺问题日益凸显,这使得银行的经营风险逐渐加大,并在一定条件下可能危及整个金融体系的健康运行。信贷资产证券化作为一种新型的金融工具,其独特的运作机制,有利于提高银行的资本充足率,改善其经营现状。但是作为一种“舶来品”,信贷资产证券化作用的有效发挥,离不开独特的市场环境和健全的法律制度的支撑。在中国目前的国情下,由于存在着诸多的法律障碍,信贷资产证券化的推行必将是一个长期、渐进的过程。     

Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis

The use of a small number of underlying factors to summarize the information from a much larger set of information variables is one of the new frontiers in forecasting. In prior work, the estimated factors have not usually had a structural interpretation and the factors have not been chosen on a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose several variants of a general structural factor forecasting model, and use these to forecast certain key macroeconomic variables. We make the choice of factors more structurally meaningful by estimating factors from subsets of information variables, where these variables can be assigned to subsets on the basis of economic theory. We compare the forecasting performance of the structural factor forecasting model with that of a univariate AR model, a standard VAR model, and some non-structural factor forecasting models. The results suggest that our structural factor forecasting model performs significantly better in forecasting real activity variables, especially at short horizons.     

西部经济和生态环境互动模式:产业互动视角的分析

西部地区生态环境的脆弱性决定了西部地区在工业化过程中不能走"先污染、后治理"的发展模式,而应该强化经济与生态环境的互动发展.产业互动是经济与生态环境互动发展的重要组成部分,产业互动的思路是按循环经济的理念推进产业结构优化,依据比较优势原则发展西部特色产业作为依托点,以建立生态工业园作为产业互动的新载体.     

现金流量折现模型综述及在企业价值评估中的应用研究

随着市场化进程的推进及价值管理在企业中的逐步实施,价值评估的理论与实务越来越受到人们的广泛关注,其中,以戈登增长模型、股权自由现金流量模型和公司自由现金流量模型为代表的现金流量折现模型的应用范围最广,发展也最为成熟,对其适用范围和衍生模型应用性的研究与定位是推进我国资产评估实务快速发展的必要前提.     

Does a factor Phillips curve help? An evaluation of the predictive power for U.S. inflation

This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, we investigate a New Keynesian Phillips curve model, and find that its forecasting performance dominates all other models at the longer horizons.     

"绝对的相对",抑或"相对的绝对"——汤森和森的贫困理论比较

英国经济学家彼得·汤森认为贫困是因为缺乏资源而被剥夺了享有常规社会生活水平和参与正常社会生活的权利,提出相对贫困测量方法.但是阿马蒂亚·森对此提出了质疑,认为贫困在能力的范围内是绝对的,相对贫困只是绝对贫困的补充而不能替代绝对贫困,是一种绝对的相对贫困观.本文对两人的贫困理论进行了比较和归纳.     

合肥市旅游饭店经营现状评价分析

本文首先分析了合肥市旅游饭店业的发展现状,指出合肥市旅游饭店业在整个安徽省旅游业发展中的重要地位。在此基础上,从企业规模、经济效益与经济贡献、成本与费用三大方面构建了评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法和因子分析法对合肥市旅游饭店09年经营数据加以分析,从而对合肥市旅游饭店的发展现状进行了客观评价,对旅游饭店竞争力的提高有一定的指导作用。     

"十二五"时期我国中小企业转变发展方式的对策研究

"十一五"期间,我国中小企业发展取得了令人瞩目的成就,但也遇到了许多新的情况和问题.特别是金融危机以来,中小企业生产经营状况日渐严峻,遭遇到了前所未有的发展瓶颈.因此,中小企业必须在分析自身发展困境的基础上抓住<"十二五"规划建议>的重大发展机遇,切实转变发展方式,推进企业向依靠技术创新转变、向知识密集型转变、向绿色发展转变.     

Testing for structural breaks in panel varying coefficient models: with an application to OECD health expenditure

In this article, we propose a model selection approach for testing structural breaks in a semiparametric panel varying coefficient model. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed model selection approach performs well in finite sample settings. Applying the method to an empirical data, we find evidence of structural breaks in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) health expenditure data by allowing for income elasticity to be state (income)-dependent. The relationship between health expenditure and income is subject to two types of structural changes: smooth changes over income and structural breaks in the time dimension. The findings hold for both foreign exchange rate-converted and Purchasing Power Parity-converted expenditure and GDP.     

知识密集型服务业国际化的动因

随着全球经济一体化的发展,国家创新系统构成主体进行国际交流与合作越来越多,使国家创新系统呈现国际化趋势。知识密集型服务业在创新系统中扮演着重要的角色,国家创新系统的国际化与知识密集型服务业国际化存在内在的联系。本文在对知识密集型服务业国际化动因现有理论进行评价的基础上,探讨了知识密集型服务业在创新系统中的作用及功能,并从创新系统的视角研究了知识密集型服务业国际化的动因。