Relational Contracting in Partnerships

When performance is not verifiable, firms in a long-term relationship may rely on incentive contracts that are self-enforced or "relational." This paper studies the optimal design and performance of relational contracts in partnerships such as joint ventures or buyer-seller alliances. Optimal contracts look the same in each period as long as the relationship continues, but may require termination of the relationship after bad outcomes. Payments between the partners depend on their relative performance. In the special case of bilateral trade with specific investments, optimal relational contracting results in a price that varies with cost and demand conditions but is more stable than under spot market bargaining. Parallels are drawn with "Japanese style" subcontracting.     

Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited

The paper addresses the practical determination of cointegration rank. This is difficult for many reasons: deterministic terms play a crucial role in limiting distributions, and systems may not be formulated to ensure similarity to nuisance parameters; finite-sample critical values may differ from asymptotic equivalents; dummy variables alter critical values, often greatly; multiple cointegration vectors must be identified to allow inference; the data may be I(2) rather than I(1), altering distributions; and conditioning must be done with care. These issues are illustrated by an empirical application of multivariate cointegration analysis to a small model of narrow money, prices, output and interest rates in the UK.     

APPROXIMATIONS TO THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF COINTEGRATION TESTS

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accurate than the standard tables previously published.     

Econometric software development: past, present and future

We give a short international history of econometric software development, with an emphasis on the origin of the main existing econometric packages. We provide a Dutch perspective on this development. We identify the characteristics of econometric software in comparison with mathematical and statistical software. Finally, a number of recent developments connected with the reuse of code across econometric softwares are discussed.     

Distribution approximations for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector‐Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non‐Gaussian likelihood. The approximation is accurate, fast and easy to use in comparison with both tabulated critical values and simulated p‐values. The proposed procedure is applied to a UK model investigating purchasing power parity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview

The notion of cointegration has led to a renewed interest in the identification and estimation of structural relations among economic time series. This paper reviews the different approaches that have been put forward in the literature for identifying cointegrating relationships and imposing (possibly over-identifying) restrictions on them. Next, various algorithms to obtain (approximate) maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood ratio statistics are reviewed, with an emphasis on so-called switching algorithms. The implementation of these algorithms is discussed and illustrated using an empirical example.     

Constructing Historical Euro-zone Data

Existing methods of reconstructing historical Euro-zone data by aggregation of the individual countries' aggregate data raises numerous difficulties, especially due to past exchange rate changes. The approach proposed here is designed to avoid such distortions, and aggregate exactly when exchange rates are fixed. We first compute growth rates within states, aggregate these, then cumulate this Euro-zone growth rate to obtain the aggregated levels variables. The aggregate of the implicit-deflator price index coincides with the implicit deflator of our aggregate nominal and real data. We apply the method to Euro-zone M3, GDP and prices over the previous two decades.     

The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure

To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, we analyze the sources of mis-prediction. This reveals that ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast-period events, not determinable from in-sample information. The primary causes are unmodelled shifts in deterministic factors, rather than model mis-specification, collinearity, or a lack of parsimony. We examine the effects of deterministic breaks on equilibrium-correction mechanisms, and consider the role of causal variables. Throughout, Monte Carlo simulation and empirical models illustrate the analysis, and support a progressive research strategy based on learning from past failures.     

Wage Formation and Bargaining Power during the Great Depression*

We present an econometric analysis of wage behaviour in Norway during the interwar years. The analysis is based on a panel of manufacturing industry data using GMM estimation methods. Our empirical analysis shows that wage formation in the interwar period can be understood with the help of modern bargaining theory and well‐established wage equations. We estimate a long‐run wage curve that has all the standard features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and with a negative unemployment elasticity. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.