Part–Time Work During Post–Compulsory Education And Examination Performance: Help Or Hindrance?

This paper examines the effects on examination performance of having a part–time job whilst in full–time post–sixteen education, using new data on young people in Northern Ireland. Around 35% engaged in part time employment during their education spell, compared to over 60% found by recent GB studies. This may be related to Northern Ireland's comparatively slack youth labour market and might reflect part–time employment levels in other peripheral regions. Our estimations suggest working part–time per se is not detrimental to examination performance, although working long hours is. Policy makers might improve educational performance by reducing incentives to work long hours.     

Social distance and shopping behavior

This research was designed to see whether a reconceptualization of social distance (as measured by social class variables) between shoppers and stores would provide a basis for understanding store avoidance behavior. A survey of shoppers classified into two distinct social classes investigated their images, including social class images, of two stores that had been selected as representatives of upscale and downscale retailers. A new measure of social distance was proposed and evaluated. Controlling for other functional aspects of store image such as price and personnel, the social distance measure was found to be influential in discriminating shopping frequency groups for the two stores, providing evidence that people tend to avoid stores that are perceived as being socially distant from themselves.     

Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses

This paper provides a technical survey of recent developments in behavioural microsimulation. We discuss the criteria by which models of labour supply may be chosen for application to behavioural microsimulation, and consider how such models may be augmented to control for fixed costs, child–related work costs, preference heterogeneity and endogeneity in wages. We describe methods by which non–linear budget constraints may be accommodated in estimation, policy simulations and welfare analysis, and discuss how stochastic terms may be factored into the simulation of behavioural responses to a policy shock.     

Life histories in housing research: the case of Pakistanis in Glasgow

The discussion centers on three key criticisms of life history techniques, which are reviewed and evaluated with reference to data from research on Pakistani housing histories in Glasgow. Firstly, the problem of bias is reframed as an issue of reflexivity, which enhances research findings. Secondly, awareness of the cultural construction of life histories allows greater depth of analysis. And thirdly the problem of the relationship between the life history and wider social forces is argued to increase awareness and understanding of social actor agency. In conclusion, we argue that life history techniques can develop research on housing careers, particularly of Pakistanis, provided certain of their properties are recognised in the process of analysis.     

Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs

Predictive models of health care costs have become mainstream in much health care actuarial work. The Affordable Care Act requires the use of predictive modeling-based risk-adjuster models to transfer revenue between different health exchange participants. Although the predictive accuracy of these models has been investigated in a number of studies, the accuracy and use of models for applications other than risk adjustment have not been the subject of much investigation. We investigate predictive modeling of future health care costs using several statistical techniques. Our analysis was performed based on a dataset of 30,000 insureds containing claims information from two contiguous years. The dataset contains more than 100 covariates for each insured, including detailed breakdown of past costs and causes encoded via coexisting condition flags. We discuss statistical models for the relationship between next-year costs and medical and cost information to predict the mean and quantiles of future cost, ranking risks and identifying most predictive covariates. A comparison of multiple models is presented, including (in addition to the traditional linear regression model underlying risk adjusters) Lasso GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forests, decision trees, and boosted trees. A detailed performance analysis shows that the traditional regression approach does not perform well and that more accurate models are possible.     

Personal income tax mimicry: evidence from international panel data

This paper investigates personal income tax (PIT) mimicry at the international level. It is the first to empirically investigate the extent to which PIT mimicry varies along the tax schedule and the first to include nations which are not part of the OECD. We use data on international personal income tax schedules from the world tax indicators to estimate marginal and average tax rates at various multiples of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). These tax rates are then used to estimate the extent to which countries respond to their neighbors’ PIT policy. We find evidence of PIT mimicry using a balanced panel of 53 countries over 24 years. This finding is strongest for tax rates at lower multiples of per capita GDP and survives several robustness checks.     

Unequal inequalities: Do progressive taxes reduce income inequality?

This paper analyzes the effect of changes in the structural progressivity of national income tax systems on observed and actual income inequality. Using several unique measures of progressivity over the 1981–2005 period for a large panel of countries, we find that progressivity reduces inequality in observed income, but has a significantly smaller impact on actual inequality, approximated by consumption-based Ginis. An empirical comparative analysis shows that the differential effect on observed versus actual inequality is much larger in countries with weaker legal institutions. We also find that structural progressivity has a greater equalizing effect in environments that support pro-poor redistribution. Substantial differences in inequality response to changes in top versus bottom rates are also uncovered.     

Ruin Problems for Phase-Type(2) Risk Processes

In this paper we consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times have a phase-type(2) distribution, a distribution with a density satisfying a second order linear differential equation. We consider some ruin related problems. In particular, we consider the compound geometric representation of the infinite time survival probability, as well as the (defective) distributions of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and of the deficit at ruin. We also consider explicit solutions for the infinite time ruin probability in the case where the individual claim amount distribution is phase-type.