Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Default risk increases substantially during financial stress times due to mainly the two reasons: volatility clustering and investors’ desire...     

On the Segregation of Genetically Modified,Conventional and Organic Products in European Agriculture: A Multi‐market Equilibrium Analysis

Evaluating the possible benefits of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops must address the issue of consumer resistance as well as the complex regulation that has ensued. In the European Union (EU), this regulation envisions the co‐existence of GM food with conventional and quality‐enhanced products, mandates the labelling and traceability of GM products and allows only a stringent adventitious presence of GM content in other products. All these elements are brought together within a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural food sector. The model comprises conventional, GM and organic food. Demand is modelled in a novel fashion, whereby organic and conventional products are treated as horizontally differentiated but GM products are vertically differentiated (weakly inferior) relative to conventional ones. Supply accounts explicitly for the land constraint at the sector level and for the need for additional resources to produce organic food. Model calibration and simulation allow insights into the qualitative and quantitative effects of the large‐scale introduction of GM products in the EU market. We find that the introduction of GM food reduces overall EU welfare, mostly because of the associated need for costly segregation of non‐GM products, but the producers of quality‐enhanced products actually benefit.     

Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach

This article examines persistence and nonlinearity in the US unemployment rate in the post-war period by using a regime-switching unit root test. The empirical results indicate that a regime-switching unit root test outperforms conventional unit root tests and describes unemployment behavior better over the business cycle in the sample. While shocks to US unemployment dissipate in expansions, shocks to the unemployment rate seem to be persistent in recessions, supporting the hysteresis hypothesis. This is consistent with the usual explanation of hysteresis that workers may lose valuable job skills in protracted recessions.     

Gender,generation and sustainable consumption: Exploring the behaviour of consumers from Izmir,Turkey

This study investigates the relationship between consumers’ sustainable consumption behaviour and both gender and generation‐related individual differences in a sample of Turkish consumers. A total of 393 participants from different generations and gender took part in the study. To measure sustainable consumption behaviour, we used four‐dimensional sustainable consumption behaviour scale. The results showed that generation is associated with unneeded consumption as a dimension of sustainable consumption behaviour. Consumers who are Baby Boomers found to have the highest level of unneeded consumption behaviour while Gen‐Zers have fewest. Additionally, data supported the association between gender and sustainable consumption behaviour. Women showed a higher level of sustainable consumption behaviour both in overall behaviour and tendency to reuse products. Taken together, the findings suggest that gender and generation of consumers can differentiate sustainable consumption behaviour. The implications of these findings, as well as the limitations and future directions, are also discussed.     

Reconsideration of Economic Views of a Classical Empire and a Nation-State During the Mercantilist Ages

While the main aim of the economic policies of European nation-states was to use the power of the state to promote trade and economic growth and to build up national industries and manufacture, the Ottoman Empire continued to follow its provisionist, fiscalist, and traditional economic policies of land expansion in the early modern period. In Western Europe, this experience gave birth to a new class that gradually improved its trade ability and expanding industries and markets under a capitalist system. The Ottoman imperial policy was mostly concerned about the continuity of strong central authority and land expansion, which never meant improving the industry or trade concerns. Instead, the economic policies of the Ottomans were subsistence of the people, provisioning the major population centers, collection of taxes, and maintaining freedom of trade. The balance and stability in society explain the priority for the Ottomans in the economy. However, commercialization and profit explain the priority for the Dutch nation in the economy. This article elaborates the economic views of the Dutch Republic and the Ottoman Empire in the mercantilist ages.     

The diversity of models as a means to better explanations in economics

ABSTRACT

In Economics Rules, Rodrik [(2015). Economics rules: Why economics works, when it fails, and how to tell the difference. Oxford: Oxford University Press] argues that what makes economics powerful despite the limitations of each and every model is its diversity of models. Rodrik suggests that the diversity of models in economics improves its explanatory capacities, but he does not fully explain how. I offer a clearer picture of how models relate to explanations of particular economic facts or events, and suggest that the diversity of models is a means to better economic explanations.     

Philosophy of Economics Rules: introduction to the symposium

ABSTRACT

Economists have long been criticized for their use of highly idealized models. In Economics rules: Why economics works, when it fails, and how to tell the difference [Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015] Dani Rodrik responds to this criticism by offering an account of models that emphasizes the diversity of models in economics. Rodrik’s account presents a rare opportunity for economists and philosophers of economics to engage in a mutually beneficial exchange that could improve our understanding of the power and limits of economics, and the rights and wrongs of the dismal science. The symposium on Rodrik’s Economics Rules is the first attempt to seize this opportunity.     

Predictability of Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Risk Premia

This article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.     

Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests

This study investigates the presence (or lack thereof) of nonlinear dynamics and nonstationarity in international art market prices using quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We first test whether art market price indices follow stochastic trends or whether they are stationary by means of linear unit root tests. Next, we estimate the Markov regime-switching ADF model and test whether the linear or the nonlinear regime-switching model provides a better characterization of the global art market price series. We find that all art market price indices (except for Drawings) exhibit nonlinearity. To our knowledge, our study is the first one in the literature to suggest that a nonlinear (Markov regime-switching) model provides a better characterization of the behavior of price dynamics in international art markets. In particular, our findings indicate that the market for the overall global art market, paintings, old masters, sculptures, photographs, prints, and contemporary art might indeed be stationary while exhibiting nonlinear regime-switching properties. On the other hand, the market for drawings and the Nineteenth century art are found to be nonstationary. Overall, despite the common ground of a regime-switching framework, we still find that the sub-segments of the art market have their own inner regime switching dynamics and hence they can evolve differently overtime.     

How to detect illegal corporate insider trading? A data mining approach for detecting suspicious insider transactions

Only in the U.S. Stock Exchanges, the daily average trading volume is about 7 billion shares. This vast amount of trading shows the necessity of understanding the hidden insights in the data sets. In this study, a data mining technique, clustering based outlier analysis is applied to detect suspicious insider transactions. 1,244,815 transactions of 61,780 insiders are analysed, which are acquired from Thomson Financial, covering a period of January 2010–April 2017. In order to detect outliers, similar transactions are grouped into the same clusters by using a two‐step clustering based outlier detection technique, which is an integration of k‐means and hierarchical clustering. Then, it is shown that outlying transactions earn higher abnormal returns than non‐outlying transactions by using event study methodology.