A note on the decomposition (at a point) of aggregate excess demand on the Grassmannian

This paper analyzes the properties of aggregate excess demand functions for economies with an arbitrary finite set of N commodities where agents face trading restrictions of a general, abstract form: their budget set is defined by K-dimensional planes in ^N. It is shown that, if there are at least K agents in the economy, the only general property satisfied by the value of aggregate excess demand and its derivative, at any arbitrary point, is Walras Law. The result is established by considering an economy where agents' preferences are of a ‘generalized Leontief' type.     

A refinement of the core equivalence theorem

It is known that if blocking coalitions are restricted to be small relative to the size of the economy then the approximation of core allocations by competitive allocations can still be assured. This paper proves that the same type of approximation result is valid if the absolute size of the blocking coalition is bounded. The methods of Anderson (1978) are applied.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

Debt enforcement,investment, and risk taking across countries

We argue that the prospect of an imperfect enforcement of debt contracts in default reduces shareholder–debtholder conflicts and induces leveraged firms to invest more and take on less risk as they approach financial distress. To test these predictions, we use a large panel of firms in 41 countries with heterogeneous debt enforcement characteristics. Consistent with our model, we find that the relation between debt enforcement and firms’ investment and risk depends on the firm-specific probability of default. A differences-in-differences analysis of firms’ investment and risk taking in response to bankruptcy reforms that make debt more renegotiable confirms the cross-country evidence.     

EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The importance of the firm and destination effects to explain firm performance

An interesting question in tourism management is why tourist firms obtain different performance levels. Firm performance in the tourism industry depends mainly on the destination where the company operates (location or destination effect), and on firm internal resources and characteristics (firm effect). The purpose of this paper is to determine the relative importance of the firm and destination effects using a multilevel approach and hierarchical linear models. The findings show that both effects impact significantly on firm performance, and also that the firm effect is more important than the destination effect. We equally provide some insights about the relationships between these two levels with the aim of building bridges between them.     

An analysis of e-business adoption and its impact on relational quality in travel agency–supplier relationships

This study analyzes how managers of retail travel agencies perceive the antecedents and consequences of adopting e-business in their supplier relationships. A comprehensive model integrating its antecedents and relational effects is developed and empirically tested using SEM. The study surveyed 101 travel agents in Spain. Research findings indicate that customer pressure has a strong influence on e-communication practices. E-communication with the travel agency's supplier and the pressure exerted by the sector are the main antecedents for e-procurement. Effects of e-business on relational quality are contradictory. E-procurement influences negatively on trust. Conversely, e-communication has a positive impact on trust, thus having a favorable impact on perceived reciprocity and travel agent's commitment to its supplier. Main findings indicate that the use of the Internet is largely driven by normative pressures, and this coercive power has a detrimental impact on trust. To avoid such negative consequences, perceived reciprocity is a prerequisite for committed supplier relationships.     

Strategic groups and performance in the Spanish hotel sector

This study uses the strategic group theory to identify business strategies and competitive advantages implemented by Spanish hotels, which are grouped together according to three variables (size, chain affiliation, and category) and the degree of development of the different business strategies. An analysis carried out with the aim of checking the potential existence of significant differences in performance among the strategic groups revealed that the highest performance levels are achieved by larger-sized, chain-affiliated, and higher-category hotels as well as by establishments which base their competitive advantage on category and capacity or size and internal management.     

Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian model averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. An application of this econometric methodology to a panel of countries over the 1960–2000 period highlights the difficulties in identifying the sources of economic growth by means of cross‐country regressions. In particular, none of the nine candidate regressors considered can be labeled as a robust determinant of economic growth. Moreover, the estimated rate of conditional convergence is indistinguishable from zero. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.