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1.
Fabienne FéméniaAlexandre Gohin 《Economic Modelling》2011,28(4):1950-1958
The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on the scenario of a complete trade liberalisation of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust compared to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework. 相似文献
2.
The present round of multilateral trade negotiations is still deadlocked over agricultural trade. The European Union (EU) is urged by its trading partners to open its agricultural markets. Economic evaluations of trade liberalisation scenarios unanimously conclude that a substantial opening of agricultural markets is required for a successful (welfare‐improving) Doha Round. In this paper, we perform new evaluations to identify precisely the contributions of the European farm policy and to examine the robustness of these evaluations in the representation of this complex policy. Using the same specifications as in major previous studies, our first simulations show that the EU has a major responsibility in delivering significant gains to the developing countries. On the other hand, when we conduct the same experiments with a more relevant calibration and modelling of the European farm policy instruments, the gains that these developing countries may reap from the EU liberalisation are considerably reduced. Accordingly the current charge against the EU is simply inopportune. 相似文献
3.
Recent academic research suggests that the effects of inward foreign direct investment for productivity and employment may
vary across foreign investors with different characteristics. Using a newly created dataset that integrates micro-level information
from The Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency and Statistics Netherlands, this paper explores the role of several of these
characteristics, including e.g. the country of origin, activities and tasks, age and strategic role of foreign affiliates
in The Netherlands in the 2000–2007 period. Our analysis shows that important employment and productivity differences exist
for nearly all these dimensions. 相似文献
4.
It has been suggested that speed limiters will have the most impact on vehicle speeds and hence road safety in general. Whilst it is technically feasible to develop a functional speed control system, it may be more difficult to design a system that drivers actually wish to use. It is essential that drivers’ acceptability towards speed limiters is gauged in order to establish the most effective way to implement the system. The research reported here used a variety of techniques to evaluate acceptability and concluded that although drivers perceive speed limiters to be effective in reducing accidents, there is a need to change perceptions about possible impacts on comfort and safety. 相似文献
5.
Consider discrete-time observations (X ? δ )1≤?≤n+1 of the process X satisfying $dX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t}Consider discrete-time observations (X
ℓ
δ
)1≤ℓ≤n+1 of the process X satisfying
dXt=?{Vt}dBtdX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t}
, with V a one-dimensional positive diffusion process independent of the Brownian motion B. For both the drift and the diffusion coefficient of the unobserved diffusion V, we propose nonparametric least square estimators, and provide bounds for their risk. Estimators are chosen among a collection
of functions belonging to a finite-dimensional space whose dimension is selected by a data driven procedure. Implementation
on simulated data illustrates how the method works. 相似文献
6.
In this paper, we aim at providing a critical appraisal of academic research valorisation models adopted in three regions in the world: the Provincia di Milano in Italy, the Technology-Region Karlsruhe in Germany and the Chinese municipality of Chongqing.Our first originality consists in developing a literature-based analytical grid to characterise and classify existing tools. In a second step, we depict and compare, thanks to a qualitative analysis run on fine-grained data (collected through in depth interviews and frequent interactions with actors of the regional innovation systems), the mechanisms adopted in the three regions so as to test for specificities in the implementation of academic knowledge transfer.Our analysis exhibits on the one hand a strong similarity among regions in terms of variety of existing tools. On the other hand, we also notice some specificities in the nature of the tools: European regions are characterised by an under-representation of absorption and appropriation tools, whereas the Chinese region seems to put great stress on direct valorisation mechanisms. Finally, rather than supporting the imitation, multiplication and superposition of newly created tools, our study encourages policy makers to be more selective and adapt their tools to regional innovative needs. 相似文献
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8.
Human beings’ resilience to extinction is much higher than what is usually imagined. Almost no single event, except a sudden burst of the planet, seems able to drive the species to death. However a chain of events such as those created by climate change or the intertwined threads of current trends, amplified by some inadequacy of human beings to cope with reality (inefficiency, apathy, underestimation, politician considerations, etc.), could challenge our survival. This paper aims to provide such a set of multiple events, interconnected or independent, evolving over a rather short period of time, 150 years. This period can seem unrealistic to drive to a plausible extinction. Yet this was a condition to set up a situation as realistic as possible, based on current facts and extrapolations. More or less 50 years in the timeline make no difference in the coherence of this evolution. The choice has been done to work out this scenario with the help of no new element, no radical rupture, nothing that would be unknown today, at least in theory. Thus, this future is a very possible one. Whether it is an about-to-happen one or not is left to the reader's judgement. Whether human beings will react this way in case it would happen is just our daily responsibility. 相似文献
9.
The main objective of this article is to examine econometric estimates of price elasticities of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences. We test all these assumptions using intra‐European trade in cheese. In general, the assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our dataset. The bias induced in the estimated price elasticities is ambiguous. 相似文献
10.
This paper reviews the relatively new debate on rhetoric andrealism in economic methodology, concentrating on its main exponents:Deirdre McCloskey on the side of rhetoric, Tony Lawson as theadvocate of critical realism, and Uskali Mäki, arguingfor a combination of rhetoric and realism. The review highlightsa blind spot in the debate, namely the opportunity to rethinkcritically the project of epistemology. 相似文献