Does “Health Promotion” Really Promote Health?

A bstract    In his comment on Victor Fuch's essay, the late Alvan Feinstein raised the question of whether government-sponsored programs of "health promotion" are always good for well-being.     

Understanding attributes affecting meal choice decisions in a bundling context

This study examined attributes that contribute to consumer meal choice decisions within a prix fixe menu. Drawing on typologies of consumer purchase behavior, factors potentially influencing consumers’ meal choice are identified and empirically tested. The results showed that consumers consider value for price as the most important consideration for their meal bundle choices. The results also indicated that familiar and healthy foods also contribute to the selection process. However, consumers tend to avoid the risk of choosing new menu items.     

Structural change in the developed countries during the twentieth century

The central theme of this paper is the process of structuralchange which occurred during the twentieth century in the leadingindustrial nations. The massive scale of the changes in allthese countries is first illustrated by reference to the reallocationof the labour force between agriculture, industry, and the services,and the process of de-industrialization common to all thesecountries is highlighted. Alternative measures based on outputdata at current and constant prices are also considered. Thepaper then explores the main reasons for these shifts in thepattern of activity, looking at the interacting effects of demand-and supply-side factors. This is followed by an examinationof some of the consequences of structural change, includingthe implications for the labour market and the overall growthof labour productivity. The final section speculates brieflyabout the likely implications for the less-developed countriesfollowing behind this advanced group.     

A supermartingale relation for multivariate risk measures

The equivalence between multiportfolio time consistency of a dynamic multivariate risk measure and a supermartingale property is proven. Furthermore, the dual variables under which this set-valued supermartingale is a martingale are characterized as the worst-case dual variables in the dual representation of the risk measure. Examples of multivariate risk measures satisfying the supermartingale property are given. Crucial for obtaining the results are dual representations of scalarizations of set-valued dynamic risk measures, which are of independent interest in the fast growing literature on multivariate risks.     

Screening strategies to inhibit the spread of AIDS

In this paper we explore the costs and benefits of screening programs for the human immunodeficiency virus (H1V). Because of the low prevalence rate of the virus among the general population, the cost per detected case of a program to screen the population at large is very high. We show how this cost changes with the prevalence rate, and how screening high risk groups reduces the cost per detected case. Screening has little point, however, unless there are follow-up activities to reduce the continued spread of the virus. To this end, we present a modeling framework for determination of optimal policy alternatives after screening.     

Electric Utility Restructuring,Regulation of Distribution Utilities,and the Fallacy of "Avoided Cost" Rules

We show that commonly used "avoided cost" rules, which evaluate investment alternatives by comparing their costs to forecasts of future expected cost, are fundamentally flawed for choosing local area investments in distribution capacity. Use of avoided cost rules: 1) confuses cost-effectiveness tests with benefit-cost tests; 2) makes inappropriate marginal comparisons and violates necessary optimality conditions because of the "lumpy" nature of many distribution system investments; 3) fails to incorporate the effects of uncertainty properly; 4) necessarily leads to excess deferral or traditional distribution capacity investments with distributed generation and DSM investments; and 5) does not lead to lowest expected cost investment plans. We conclude by outlining a more appropriate approach to evaluating distribution investments based on evaluations of actual cash flows associated with investment alternatives under uncertainty.