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1.
Anthony Bellotti Damiano Brigo Paolo Gambetti Frédéric Vrins 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(1):428-444
We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential. 相似文献
2.
3.
Frédéric Lordon 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1997,7(1):1-21
The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies,
and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing
that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn
“productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path.
Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by
the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as
long term and endogenous outcomes. 相似文献
4.
Maano Ramutsindela Sylvain Guyot Sébastien Boillat Frédéric Giraut Patrick Bottazzi 《Geopolitics》2020,25(1):240-266
ABSTRACTThe conservation enterprise is embedded in ideas of the environment through which it promotes a vision of the world and the relations between the non-human and human. The papers in this forum analyse conservation from various vantage points to draw the links between geopolitics and conservation. The authors use three themes to demonstrate these links. The first theme draws on the concept of environmentality to show the mobilization of ecological rationalities and power towards the creation of protected areas. The second pays attention to networks formed across the distance, and how they influence the location and governance of protected areas. The third focuses on the strategies the conservation lobby uses to align local identities with global conservation ideals and goals. Collectively, these themes highlight features of conservation geopolitics. 相似文献
5.
Ana Isabel Polo Peña Dolores María Frías Jamilena Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Molina 《Journal of Small Business Management》2011,49(3):331-360
Market orientation (MO) is considered as a competitive strategy for the smaller service enterprises based in rural locations. A model is proposed and validated for the rural tourism sector that encompasses the effects of MO and of the use of information and communications technology (ICT) on business activity, taking into account the business's financial results, improvements to the rural location, and the more personal, intangible impact on the local entrepreneur. ICT is found to have a positive impact on MO and outcomes, whereas, similarly, the adoption of MO is found to have a positive effect on outcomes. 相似文献
6.
Paolo Beria Hans-Martin Niemeier Karsten Fröhlich 《Journal of Air Transport Management》2011,17(4):215-220
The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a state-managed failure. The history of the airline is characterized by a continuous decline in its competitive position since the progressive liberalization of the European aviation market. The root cause of this decline lies in the carrier being mainly used as a political tool rather than operating as a competitive firm. In a liberalized market this doomed Alitalia to failure, which was artificially delayed by numerous state financial and regulatory interventions. The paper starts with a historical overview of the most important events in recent Alitalia history. Thereafter the main causes of the airline’s weak competitive position relative to other European carriers are analyzed. We argue that the underlying causes of the decline were continuous political protection, lack of strategic views in favor of short-term objectives, and poor managerial decisions. 相似文献
7.
We show how instrumental variable and matching estimators can be combined in order to identify a broader array of treatment effects. Instrumental variable (IV) estimators are known to estimate effects only for the compliers, representing a subset of the entire population. By combining IV with matching, we can estimate the treatment effects for the always‐ and never‐takers as well. Since in many cases these groups are the (endogenous) outcome of some assignment process, such estimates also help in judging the implications of such a selection process. In our application to the effects of participation in active labour market programmes in Switzerland, we find large and lasting positive employment effects for the compliers, whereas the effects for the always‐ and never‐participants are small. In addition, the compliers have worse employment outcomes without treatment than those who participate in the programme with or without the intervention under investigation. This suggests that the earlier assignment policy of the caseworkers was inefficient in that the always‐participants were neither those unemployed who would experience the highest expected treatment effects nor those unemployed who had the largest need for assistance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Ana Isabel Polo Peña Dolores María Frías Jamilena Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Molina 《Service Business》2017,11(1):93-116
This paper aims to identify the moderating effect of service firms’ adoption of market orientation on key variables of consumer behavior, namely perceived value and loyalty. The study took a business-to-customer perspective. First, the adoption of market orientation was measured, from the firm’s point of view. Second, customer perceptions were analyzed, using the two variables perceived value and loyalty. The sample comprised 100 service firms and 572 of their customers. The present work provides original insights, identifying that the effect of perceived value on loyalty depends on other variables external to the consumer, such as the market orientation approach. 相似文献
9.
The bidirectional causal links between high-skilled emigration and poverty can give rise to multiple equilibria and coordination
failures. Two countries sharing identical characteristics may end up in either a “low poverty-low brain drain” equilibrium
or in a “high poverty-high brain drain” equilibrium. In this paper, we build a model which endogenizes high-skilled emigration
and economic performances in order to derive the conditions under which multiplicity occurs. After identifying country-specific
parameters, we find that in the majority of developing countries, the best equilibrium is selected and that the observed brain
drain is inevitable. In 22 small developing countries however, the worse equilibrium prevails, implying that poverty and brain
drain are increased by coordination failure. These countries require appropriate development policies, such as a temporary
subsidization of the repatriation of their high-skilled expatriates. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a brain gain
mechanism. 相似文献
10.
At the center of the on-going debate about the U.S. Social Security system is the question of whether the way the system is financed can cope with the future challenges posed by the retiring Baby Boom generation. The "reformers" suggest changing the design of the system by moving to fully funded defined contribution retirement plans. Others argue that the so-called demographic problems are being used as an excuse to privatize the system. But both sides spend almost all of their energy and time figuring out the timing of insolvency of the system and the validity of the assumptions made in each forecast. In contrast, the present study closely examines the changing macroeconomic dynamics of the system since the 1960s. The analysis shows that undermining of the system is caused not by demographic changes or financing mechanisms but by low wages and medical inflation. 相似文献