The economics of netting in financial networks

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Can the netting of on-balance-sheet interbank assets and liabilities be useful in thwarting financial contagion during a systemic crisis episode?...     

How diverse are national banking systems? An analysis on banking business models,profitability, and riskiness

In this paper, we apply an algorithm developed by Martin Weitzman to quantify the extent of diversity among the business models of financial intermediaries at an international level. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the diversity of the business models of EU national banking systems and their profitability and riskiness. We show how Weitzman's approach can be generally applied to the issue at hand; as a by-product, the analysis allows us to assess whether the diversity among banking systems was affected by the imported systemic financial crises of 2007/8 as well as its domestic sequel centered on the sovereign debt crisis that occurred in 2010–12. The motivation for this paper is twofold. First, we provide an operational measure of the diversity of business models among banking sectors. Second, we enrich the economic literature relating to banking business models by providing a macro-founded analysis. To this end, we highlight the range of diversity of national banking business models correlated with high performances in terms of profitability and riskiness.     

Interbank contagion and resolution procedures: inspecting the mechanism

This paper develops a network model of a stylized banking system in which banks are connected to one another through interbank claims, which allows us to study the diffusion of default avalanches triggered by an exogenous shock under a number of different assumptions on the degree of interconnectedness, level of capitalization, liquidity buffers, the size of the interbank market and fire-sales. We expand upon the existing literature by comparing two alternative resolution mechanisms: (i) liquidations triggered by either illiquidity or insolvency-related distress implying asset sales and compensation of creditors; and (ii) a bail-in mechanism avoiding bank closure by forcing a recapitalization provided by bank creditors. Our model speaks to how contagion dynamics unravel via illiquidity-driven defaults in the first case and higher-order losses in the latter one. Within this framework, we show how the liquidity risk externality can be resolved, and we put forward a macro-criterion to assess the adequacy of the liquidity ratio introduced with Basel III.     

Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm

This article discusses some issues and challenges facing modern macroeconomics. We argue for the necessity to replace the reductionist approach at the heart of mainstream DSGE models with an approach rooted on the science of complexity and agent-based modelling. To strengthen and exemplify our position, we show a simple example and introduce several items for a research agenda along these lines.     

A functional perspective on financial networks

The financial sector is a critical component of any economic system, as it delivers key qualitative asset transformation services in terms of liquidity, maturity and volume. Although these functions could in principle be carried out separately by specialized actors, in the end it is their systemic co-evolution that determines how the aggregate economy performs and withstands disruptions. In this paper we argue that a functional perspective on financial intermediation can be usefully employed to investigate the functioning of financial networks. We do this in two steps. First, we use previously unreleased data to show that focusing on the economic functions performed over time by the different institutions exchanging funds in an interbank market can be informative, even if the underlying topological structure of their relations remains constant. Second, a set of alternative artificial histories are generated and stress-tested by using real data as a calibration base, with the aim of performing counterfactual welfare comparisons among different topological structures.     

The distribution of sectoral TFP growth rates: International evidence

This paper investigates the distributional properties of TFP growth rates for countries in the G7 group. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that multifactor productivity shocks can be plausibly fitted by a symmetric non-Gaussian stable distribution model. This leads to non-negligible implications for business cycle analysis.     

Requiem for the unit root in per capita real GDP? Additional evidence from historical data

We present new evidence on the uncertain nature of nonstationarity – that is, trend stationarity vs. difference stationarity – of aggregate per capita real output, by submitting to a composite testing procedure a 20-country sample over an historically relevant time span. We find that the degree of uncertainty associated with the presence of a unit root appears to be well exceeding that shown by other studies conducted so far on cross-country historical data. For almost all the countries in our sample, inference appears to be strongly dependent on the type of test one makes use of, so that conclusions reached at early stages of a composite confirmatory testing procedure have to be frequently discarded at subsequent stages. Our reading of these findings points towards rejecting the assumption of temporal homogeneity of per capita GDP time series over long time spans, a prerequisite implicitly assumed in all studies looking for invariant statistical properties like stochastic or deterministic nonstationarity.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

Demand distribution dynamics in creative industries: The market for books in Italy

We studied the distribution dynamics of the demand for books in Italy. We found that for each of the three broad sub-markets into which the book publishing industry can be classified – Italian novels, foreign novels and non-fiction – sales over a three-year sample can be adequately fitted by a power law distribution. Our results can be plausibly interpreted in terms of a model of interactions among buyers exchanging information on the books they buy.     

Macroprudential consolidation policy in interbank networks

Can consolidation policy be made consistent with macro-prudential supervision? In this study, we seek to provide new insights on this key-question using a network approach. We study how the resilience of a banking network evolves as we shock an initially homogenous competitive market with a sequence of M&A activities that significantly alter the topology of the network. We study how different M&A treatments impact the structural vulnerabilities that can propagate through the system and we show that the severity of contagion and default dynamics depends on the chosen treatment. The desirability of alternative competitive settings (such as a hub-centered market or a more concentrated and yet symmetric market) are assessed against a homogenous benchmark case. We show that the choice depends crucially on the size of the interbank market and the level of bank capitalization. The existence of a large highly connected hub is beneficial in a capitalized network with a well-developed interbank market, but it can significantly weaken the system’s resilience in a poorly capitalized market. Antitrust and competition authorities should adopt a state-contingent approach to M&A activities according to the market conditions in which banks operate.