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1.
2.
We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition. 相似文献
3.
This paper compares the approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents translog and minflex generalized Leontief cost functions with their translog and generalized Leontief counterparts in Monte Carlo experiments. The minflex Laurent specifications generally provided closer approximations to underlying technical and economic parameters. Imposition of nonlinear restrictions on some of the parameters of the minflex Laurent models yielded measurable improvement in estimated elasticities of substitutions, returns to scale, and rates of technical change.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through E. Appelbaum. 相似文献
4.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between product innovativeness and groups of outcomes flowing from the computer software product development process and the associated knowledge acquisition process. Data from interviews of managers in 94 software projects are analysed, and three groups of outcomes are measured: project performance, knowledge enhancement, and the strengthening of linkages to external actors/sources. The high innovative products show higher project performance for all measures of project performance compared with low innovative products. Similar results were found for all measures of personnel knowledge enhancement outcomes. Changes in the importance of linkages to nine different external sources of knowledge used by the firms during the knowledge acquisition process, also show some positive outcomes with respect to rising innovativeness levels. Strengthening of external linkages is found for 66% of the investigated linkages between one or two innovativeness levels. Of these, the linkages to hardware manufacturers, co-operation partners, and universities and other research institutions show strengthening when high innovativeness products are compared with low-level products. As the project performance and knowledge enhancement outcomes are due, in part, to knowledge gained within linkages to external actors/sources, managers could consider whether giving special attention to managing these linkages would be a winning innovation strategy for their particular firm. 相似文献
5.
Gary Cook 《Local Economy》1987,2(1):25-30
Following the earlier article on GLC and GLEB property letting, this contribution argues that an industrial lettings policy is inadequate for the promotion of good employment practices and sector strategy. 相似文献
6.
We examine potential information transfers from companies that announce dividend omissions to their industry rivals. Specifically, we examine the abnormal stock returns and abnormal earnings forecast revisions of rivals after a company makes a dividend‐omission announcement. Our results show negative and significant abnormal stock returns and negative and significant abnormal forecast revisions for rival companies in response to the announcement, and a significant and positive relation between the two. We conclude that a dividend‐omission announcement transmits unfavorable information across the announcing company's industry that affects cash flow expectations and ultimately stock prices. 相似文献
7.
Gary Koop 《Journal of Empirical Finance》1994,1(3-4)
This paper uses Bayesian methods to analyze unit root and cointegration properties of two different finance data sets. Avoiding the use of subjective prior information, the paper surveys and utilizes several different objective Bayesian methodologies in an investigation of common stochastic trends in international stock markets and in spot and forward exchange rates for several different countries. 相似文献
8.
The recent revival of interest in the issue of limiting auditors' liability raises questions about the potential effect of such a limitation on auditors' performance. This paper considers the consequences of limited liability from the perspectives of contracting theory and economic arguments. We examine the potential effect of a reduction in auditors' liability on the standard of care or quality of service they provide, emphasising the "calculus of negligence" concept used by Australian courts. We consider the potential impact of reduced liability on the auditor's decision to shirk responsibilities (the moral hazard problem) and on the value placed on audit services. The analysis shows that placing a statutory cap on auditors' liability has the potential to reduce the effectiveness of bonding mechanisms; provide an avenue for divergent behaviour; lower the level of care provided by auditors; and decrease the value of audit services. 相似文献
9.
Prior to making important decisions, marketing managers go through an evaluation process in which available alternatives are
compared. Yet, no systematic discussion of the evaluation process exists in the marketing literature. This article reviews
the marketing and behavioral decision theory literature in order to identify factors that may cause errors in the two fundamental
elements of the evaluation process—the estimation of probabilities and the determination of the value of outcomes. Propositions
are developed that specify circumstances in which marketing management decisions may be influenced by judgmental biases, and
procedures are identified for debiasing such judgments. 相似文献
10.
Gary Harden 《Journal of Financial Services Marketing》2002,6(4):323-332
UK high street banks are continuing to extend the choice of channel through which customers can manage their moneycolon; an obvious example is e-banking. They have been keen to exploit technological advances and changing customer attitudes to alternative channels. Additionally, competition from leaner new market entrants has provided an added incentive to adopt new approaches. In the light of such developments, it is worth reflecting on the changing nature of the bank–customer relationship. This paper suggests that banks are finding it difficult to manage relationships effectively due, in large measure, to the sheer volume of customer data generated by new interactive, technology-based channels. Paradoxically, it seems that the more data banks have about customers the less likely they are to know them on a personal level. It is further suggested that channels such as e-banking potentially reduce the level of personal contact between bank and customer to the extent that a ‘virtual’ relationship develops. This paper concludes that, given the tendency towards ‘virtualisation’, it is inconceivable that bank–customer relationships will become any more intimate in the future. Indeed, a greater degree of personalisation in customer communication may be the very best that banks are able to offer. 相似文献