The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

Competition among hospitals

We examine competition in the hospital industry, in particular the effect of ownership type (for-profit, not-for-profit, government). We estimate a structural model of demand and pricing in the hospital industry in California, then use the estimates to simulate the effect of a merger. California hospitals in 1995 face an average price elasticity of demand of -4.85. Not-for-profit hospitals face less elastic demand and act as if they have lower marginal costs. Their prices are lower than those of for-profits, but markups are higher. We simulate the effects of the 1997 merger of two hospital chains. In San Luis Obispo County, where the merger creates a near monopoly, prices rise by up to 53%, and the predicted price increase would not be substantially smaller were the chains not-for-profit.     

Quantity,quality and the welfare effects of US airline deregulation

In this paper we employ a method for estimationg quality-adjusted demand to calculate measures of the change in consumer suruplus due to US airline deregulation. The quality-adjusted estimates of the price elasticity of demand indicate that consumers are from 25% to 50% more sensitive to changes in air fares than unadjusted estimates would suggest. Changes in unadjusted consumer surplus overstate the net welfare gains from deregulation by roughly a factor of two, strongly suggesting that adjustments for quallity of service are essential to welfare analysis of regulatory changes in this industry     

Change, consolidation, and competition in health care markets.

The health care industry is being transformed. Large firms are merging and acquiring other firms. Alliances and contractual relations between players in this market are shifting rapidly. Within the next few years, many markets are predicted to be dominated by a few large firms. Antitrust enforcement authorities like the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, as well as courts and legislators at both the federal and state levels, are struggling with the implications of these changes for the nature and consequences of competition in health care markets. In this paper we summarize the nature of the changes in the structure of the health care industry. We focus on the markets for health insurance, hospital services, and physician services. We then discuss the potential implications of the restructuring of the health care industry for competition, efficiency, and public policy. As will become apparent, this area offers a number of intriguing questions for inquisitive researchers.     

Competition within the firm: theory plus some evidence from medical group practice.

Recent work on the economics of the firm and other organizations has emphasized the importance of internal organization and incentives. The issue of competition within the firm has not arisen, however. In this article I construct a model of nonprice competition among members of a professional partnership and test the model with data on medical group practice. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis of nonprice competition among members of the firm.     

Economics at the FTC: Office Supply Retailers Redux,Healthcare Quality Efficiencies Analysis,and Litigation of an Alleged Get-Rich-Quick Scheme

We discuss in this essay three of the matters on which economists in the Bureau of Economics (BE) at the Federal Trade Commission have worked this past year. BE revisited familiar ground in the first matter, a proposed merger of office supply retailers. The second part of the essay considers efficiency claims in health care mergers, with focus on the acquisition of a physician group by a health care system in Idaho. The final part of the essay discusses empirical work that was undertaken by the Bureau to investigate claims made by marketers of an alleged get-rich-quick scheme.     

Current and projected patient and insurer costs for the care of patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the United States through 2040

Aims: The objective of this study was to quantify the current and to project future patient and insurer costs for the care of patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the US.

Materials and methods: An analysis of administrative claims data among patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer from 2007–2015 was conducted. Future costs were projected through 2040 based on these data using autoregressive models.

Results: Analysis of claims data found the average total cost of care during first- and second-line therapy was $1,161.70 and $561.80 for patients, and $45,175.70 and $26,201.40 for insurers, respectively. By 2040, the average total patient out-of-pocket costs are projected to reach $3,047.67 for first-line and $2,211.33 for second-line therapy, and insurance will pay an average of $131,262.39 for first-line and $75,062.23 for second-line therapy.

Limitations: Claims data are not collected for research purposes; therefore, there may be errors in entry and coding. Additionally, claims data do not contain important clinical factors, such as stage of disease at diagnosis, tumor histology, or data on disease progression, which may have important implications on the cost of care.

Conclusions: The trajectory of the cost of lung cancer care is growing. This study estimates that the cost of care may double by 2040, with the greatest proportion of increase in patient out-of-pocket costs. Despite the average cost projections, these results suggest that a small sub-set of patients with very high costs could be at even greater risk in the future.     

Fair value accounting for liabilities: The role of disclosures in unraveling the counterintuitive income statement effect from credit risk changes

When liabilities are accounted for at fair value, a deterioration of a company’s credit risk results in the reporting of an income statement gain; an improvement in a company’s credit risk results in a loss. Many argue that these income statement effects are counterintuitive and that financial statement-users are likely to misinterpret fair value gains as positive signals and fair value losses as negative signals. Utilizing an experiment with CPAs as participants, we find that these arguments are indeed valid. Specifically, we find that over 70% of the participants incorrectly assess a company’s credit risk as improving (deteriorating) when a fair value gain (loss) is recognized. We also find that disclosures that explicitly specify the relation between the direction of the credit risk change and the income statement effect significantly reduce participants’ misinterpretations, and are more beneficial when fair value gains versus losses are recognized. These findings provide empirical evidence in the debate over the recognition of company-specific credit risk changes and offer direction for improving disclosures in the area of fair value accounting.     

More on the Cost of Being Other Than White and Male:

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the estimated yearly earnings of white, black, and Hispanic males and white, black, and Hispanic females in order to determine two things: Whether white male earnings continue to exceed those of reference groups, and how the cost of being female (the gender effect) compares with the cost of being nonwhite (black or Hispanic). We find that white males earnings are still greater than those of other groups, but when earnings are adjusted for market related differences, most of the differentials for black and Hispanic (Mexican-American, Puerto-Rican) males disappear. Even after adjustment, however, a considerable portion of females earnings differentials remain unexplained. Gender effects are considerably larger than race or ethnic effects.     

Misperceptions,moral hazard and incentives in groups

Recent work has shown that, in the presence of moral hazard, balanced-budget Nash equilibria in groups are not Pareto-optimal. This work shows that when agents misperceive the effects of their actions on the joint outcome there exist a set of sharing rules which balance the budget and lead to a Pareto-optimal Nash equilibrium.