Timing and duration effects in residence histories and other longitudinal data: II. Studies of duration effects in Norway, 1965-1971

The main results of eleven studies of the nature and determinants of the timing of moves and duration of residence effects are presented. The studies (see table 1) illustrate the use of the methodological framework for studying individual histories of the previous article. There are substantial duration of residence effects in most population subgroups, implying that the migration process in non-Markovian at the mocro level and that the semi-Markov model is required. However, characterization of effects and their determinants are shown to depend so heavily on the type of interval and observation scheme used, that only within a comprehensive framework is proper interpretation of empirical results possible.     

Timing and duration effects in residence histories and other longitudinal data: I. Stochastic and statistical models

A framework for studying the timing of events in migration histories and other micro-level longitudinal data is presented. The framework derives from a general stochastic model of the histories in which moves depend on the past history of the process, time varying individual characteristics, and exogenous constraints and opportunities. The semi-Markov model plays a distinguished role. The framework emphasizes the range of stochastic models available, the different types of time intervals and observational schemes that can be considered, distributions that can be used to characterize intervals, and statistical methodology. The use and crucial importance of the framework in empirical research is illustrated in the sequel.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von M. St. Braun, WienAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von E. Allina, WienAus dem Russischen übersetzt von A. GerschenkronÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.     

Measuring and modelling changes in strategy: Theoretical foundations and empirical directions

Confronted by increasingly turbulent and complex environments, general managers have become more interested in understanding the conditions and forces that enable or disable successful changes in organizational strategies. Yet, largely because of their tendency to use fuzzy definitions and inadequate methodologies, empirical studies of changes in strategy have not provided practitioners with a set of well-tested theories. To provide a basis for circumscribing, evaluating, and directing future research, this paper begins by developing a framework for assessing and modelling changes in strategy. After discussing the forces that influence their occurrence and performance outcomes, the paper reviews a representative sample of empirical studies in terms of two major questions: (1) how are changes in strategy conceptualized and modelled? and (2) what methods of observation and analysis are employed? This review concludes with a report of important patterns and concerns followed by suggestions for future research.     

Timing and duration effects in residence histories and other longitudinal data: Part 1. Stochastic and statistical models; Part 2. Studies of duration effects in Norway, 1965-1971

The author describes an attempt to fit stochastic models to individual life histories. "In particular, [he] is concerned with the application of semi-Markov processes to the study of the timing of moves and duration of residence effects in the migration histories of Norwegian men over the period 1965-1971." In the second part of the article, the results of 11 studies using data on Norwegian men are presented     

CHAMPIONS OF CHANGE AND STRATEGIC SHIFTS: THE ROLE OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHANGE ADVOCATES*

Change advocates who participate in the process of strategy-making can play an important role in enabling organizational adaptation. To examine the nature of this role, this article investigates the influence on strategic shifts of two such participants - new members of the top management team and management consultants. Empirical findings suggest that managers see these two types of change agents as having two different kinds of influence on strategic shifts. Specifically, the change agent role of management consultants is viewed as one that creates pressure for change by helping to shape new managerial perspectives of the environment. In contrast, the change agent role of new members of the top management team is viewed as one that counteracts inertial forces that may block the implementation of change. These results suggest that management consultants may be much more useful in stimulating changes in the ways executives think about their environment than they are in implementing radical strategic changes. To overcome institutional resistance to extreme strategic shifts, organizations may need to resort to stronger political and symbolic actions, such as promoting or hiring new top executives in key leadership roles.     

The multiplant firm with increasing returns to scale

The paper analyzes allocation among plants whose production is characterized by “nicely convex-concave production functions” (intended to fulfill the property of initial increasing returns to scale followed by subsequent decreasing returns to scale). Necessary conditions for optimal allocation are derived. The complete solution is given for the simplified case of identical plants, and examples show the various possibilities that may arise. The relative difficulty of solution for even the simplest case emphasizes the problem of applying our economic theories to the real world.     

Housing satisfaction and intention to move: Their explanatory variables

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between housing satisfaction and intention to move among apartment owners. The sample was 809 women, individually interviewed. The findings indicate that the two indicators are not necessarily different expressions of the same attitude. People may be satisfied with their housing and still intend to move, and others may be dissatisfied and not intend to move. Moreover, the variables explaining the variance of each indicator are different. The percentage of the explained variance was higher for intention to move than for housing satisfaction.