How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross‐country surveys

Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi‐dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years—the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance–covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic linkages among them. Efficiency is rejected for all 18 countries: forecast revisions show a high degree of serial correlation. We then develop a framework for characterizing the nature of the inefficiency in forecasts. For a smaller set of countries, the G‐7, we estimate a VAR model on forecast revisions. The degree of inefficiency, as manifested in the serial correlation of forecast revisions, tends to be smaller in forecasts of the USA than in forecasts for European countries. Our framework also shows that one of the sources of the inefficiency in a country's forecasts is resistance to utilizing foreign news. Thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries. This is particularly the case for Canadian and French forecasts, which would gain by paying greater attention than they do to news from the USA and Germany, respectively. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory

This paper presents a comprehensive set of tests of the implications of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find, unlike previously reported results, a very limited relationship between the expected returns and the covariance (factor loadings) measures of risk. Furthermore, unique variance measures of risk, while generally making only small contributions to the explanation of asset returns, turn out to be significant about as frequently as the coveriance measures of risk — which is inconsistent with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model. The intercept tests are more mixed but provide only limited support to the model.     

Contractual relationships in family firms： An agency theory interpretation from a managerial perspective

This study examines the contractual relationships from a managerial point of view by a sample of 55 family firms in an industrial zone in Turkey. The results show that the type of contract （i.e., behavior or outcome-based） is not affected by a professional manager＇s tenure, position and his/her education level. It is also presented that the type of contract does empirically not have a relationship with information asymmetry and risk taking/uncertainty in a family firm setting. Furthermore, its relationship to goal conflict and job complexity is weak and negative, which necessarily means that any increase in goal conflict or job complexity requires an outcome-based contract to be written between an owner and a professional manager. Yet, only goal conflict is significant in explaining the type of contract. From the managerial perspective, these findings imply that the agency theory is not suitable for relatively small family firms.     

Asymmetric predictability of conditional variances

We show that there is an asymmetry in the predictability ofthe volatilities of large versus small firms. Using both univariateand multivariate ARMA - GARCH-M parameterziations, we find thatvolatility surprises to large market value firms are importantto the future dynamics of their own returns as well as the returnsof small firms. Conversely, however, shocks to smaller firmshave no impact on the behavior of either the mean or the varianceof the returns of larger capitalization companies.     

Stock market seasonality: International Evidence

This study examines empirically stock market seasonality in major industrialized countries. Evidence is provided that there are strong seasonalities in the stock market return distributions in most of the capital markets around the world. The seasonality, when it exists, appears to be caused by the disproportionately large January returns in most countries and April returns in the U.K. With the exception of australia, these months also coincide with the turn of the tax year.