Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001     

A Markov–switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate the advantages of generating regime dependent responses. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001     

Airport alliances and mergers – Structural change in the airport industry?

Recent years have seen a global trend towards the emergence of multi-airport companies operating at a global scale. This paper employs industrial and transaction costs economics to identify the main drivers that shape the patterns of international cross-ownership structures that have emerged in the airport industry. In addition, implications for competition and competition policy are drawn.     

Alitalia – The failure of a national carrier

The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a state-managed failure. The history of the airline is characterized by a continuous decline in its competitive position since the progressive liberalization of the European aviation market. The root cause of this decline lies in the carrier being mainly used as a political tool rather than operating as a competitive firm. In a liberalized market this doomed Alitalia to failure, which was artificially delayed by numerous state financial and regulatory interventions. The paper starts with a historical overview of the most important events in recent Alitalia history. Thereafter the main causes of the airline’s weak competitive position relative to other European carriers are analyzed. We argue that the underlying causes of the decline were continuous political protection, lack of strategic views in favor of short-term objectives, and poor managerial decisions.     

An evaluation of yardstick regulation for European airports

The European airport industry is subject to various forms of economic regulation and there is debate as to which of the systems provides the best incentives for allocative and productive efficiency. This paper deals with the applicability of benchmarking as a regulatory tool for airports. This form of regulation aims at evaluating the cost level of a firm by comparing it to the mean marginal cost structure of all other firms in the market. The paper investigates the difficulties arising from airport benchmarking as well as the benefits that might be derived from it by drawing lessons from benchmark regulation in other industries and the few cases where it has been applied to airports. In particular, it assesses whether yardstick regulation is a feasible alternative to the existing forms of economic regulation or whether yardsticks are more useful for internal management purposes.     

Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification

This paper uses transaction data to examine hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange; the Fish Pool salmon futures exchange in Norway. The paper utilizes data on firm-level exporter/importer transaction prices to quantify firm-level futures hedging efficiency. This allows us to address heterogeneity in hedging efficiency and basis risk at the firm level. The main result of this paper shows that larger firms with greater trade partner diversification have lower basis risk. Such firms align their internal transaction price closer to the common spot price in the market, which encourages greater futures market participation. Results are discussed in light of recent declines in participation in the salmon futures exchange.     

Health,disability and work: patterns for the working age population

We examine the role of health as a determinant of labour force participation, paying particular attention to the link between the two provided by disability insurance schemes. We first review the evidence on associations between health and labour force participation. Enrolment in disability insurance is not determined by health alone, and we highlight the main other causes that the literature has identified. In an application to The Netherlands, we follow the structure of the literature review and show that the trends in health and disability insurance enrolment look rather positive. In particular, the 1990 reforms of disability insurance might have been more effective than previously realised because part of their success was hidden by demographic change: The large number of baby boomers kept the absolute inflow high as they aged, despite large reductions in relative rates.