Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias

Financial distress precedes bankruptcy. Most financial distress models actually rely on bankruptcy data, which is easier to obtain. We obtained a dataset of financially distressed but not yet bankrupt companies supplying a major auto manufacturer. An early warning model successfully discriminated between these distressed companies and a second group of similar but healthy companies. Previous researchers argue the matched-sample design, on which some earlier models were built, causes bias. To test for bias, the dataset was partitioned into smaller samples that approach equal groupings. We statistically confirm the presence of a bias and describe its impact on estimated classification rates.     

Human Choice: the genetic code for social development

A comprehensive theory of social development is needed that treats human beings as the center of the development process and integrates all its economic, political, social, and cultural factors. Drawing a wide range of intriguing parallels with biological evolution, the authors describe the central role of organization in social development; “surplus human energy” as both condition and fuel for the process; the role of conscious individual pioneers who express subconscious social aspirations; imitation as the mechanism for social diffusion; information flows that serve as catalysts for new things to do and new ways to do old things; and laws, policies and formal systems as way-stations on the road to internalized values and informal social organizations. The primary resource and ultimate determinant of development is the individual human being's unlimited capacity for creativity and resourcefulness. Extending greater freedom of choice to its individual citizens is the central mechanism by which society can tap and release this infinite resource for the collective benefit.     

Dynamism and development

In industrialized countries, the human needs and purposes to be served by science and technology are increasingly subject to greater social control. People in developing countries are also preoccupied with controlling choices in the development and application of technology - and the priceless ingredient in controlling their own destiny.The encounter between the more and less dynamic societies makes developing countries the targets of an ‘information bombardment’. Science, technology, values and organization - the ‘active ingredients’ in development - are all forms of information (a resource that is not merely renewable but expandable). The capacity of indigenous people to understand and manipulate the information flow - linking science (‘know what’) and technology (‘know-how’) to human values (‘know why’) and social authority and organization (‘know who’) - is consequently the key to the dynamics of ‘development’.     

A comparison of the performance of open-and closed-end investment companies

This paper investigates the impact of corporate structure on the return performance and related operational characteristics of open- and closed-end investment companies. A statistical model is used to test for differences in several characteristics of these two different types of funds. The results show that there are differences in the returns of open-and closed-end funds, as well as differences in turnover and expenses of funds with different corporate structures. Moreover, the results are surprising in that they are significantly affected by the type of security held in the funds.     

Scheduling of re-entrant flow shops

We propose and develop a scheduling system for a very special type of flow shop. This flow shop processes a variety of jobs that are identical from a processing point of view. All jobs have the same routing over the facilities of the shop and require the same amount of processing time at each facility. Individual jobs, though, may differ since they may have different tasks performed upon them at a particular facility. Examples of such shops are flexible machining systems and integrated circuit fabrication processes. In a flexible machining system, all jobs may have the same routing over the facilities, but the actual tasks performed may differ; for instance, a drilling operation may vary in the placement or size of the holes. Similarly, for integrated circuit manufacturing, although all jobs may follow the same routing, the jobs will be differentiated at the photolithographic operations. The photolitho-graphic process establishes patterns upon the silicon wafers where the patterns differ according to the mask that is used.The flow shop that we consider has another important feature, namely the job routing is such that a job may return one or more times to any facility. We say that when a job returns to a facility it reenters the flow at that facility, and consequently we call the shop a re-entrant flow shop. In integrated circuit manufacturing, a particular integrated circuit will return several times to the photolithographic process in order to place several layers of patterns on the wafer. Similarly, in a flexible machining system, a job may have to return to a particular station several times for additional metal-cutting operations.These re-entrant flow shops are usually operated and scheduled as general job shops, ignoring the inherent structure of the shop flow. Viewing such shops as job shops means using myopic scheduling rules to sequence jobs at each facility and usually requires large queues of work-in-process inventory in order to maintain high facility utilization, but at the expense of long throughput times.In this paper we develop a cyclic scheduling method that takes advantage of the flow character of the process. The cycle period is the inverse of the desired production rate (jobs per day). The cyclic schedule is predicated upon the requirement that during each cycle the shop should perform all of the tasks required to complete a job, although possibly on different jobs. In other words, during a cycle period we require each facility to do each task assigned to it exactly once. With this requirement, a cyclic schedule is just the sequencing and timing on each facility of all of the tasks that that facility must perform during each cycle period. This cyclic schedule is to be repeated by each facility each cycle period. The determination of the best cyclic schedule is a very difficult combinatorial optimization problem that we cannot solve optimally for actual operations. Rather, we present a computerized heuristic procedure that seems very effective at producing good schedules. We have found that the throughput time of these schedules is much less than that achievable with myopic sequencing rules as used in a job shop. We are attempting to implement the scheduling system at an integrated circuit fabrication facility.     

Using household surveys to implement field experiments: the willingness to donate to food banks

This paper demonstrates that it is possible to jointly produce household surveys and field experiments by incorporating field experiments into the structure of the financial incentives used to enhance response rates. We use the opportunity to donate the financial incentive to a food bank to illustrate how the strategy would work.     

Sustainable growth rate of firms in financial distress

Sustainable growth rate defines the rate at which a company’s sales and assets can grow if the company sells no new equity and wishes to maintain its capital structure. The traditional formula assumes that the firm can increase its indebtedness. Many private firms and most firms in financial distress have limited or no access to debt markets. While distressed firms may prefer a no growth strategy, external pressures such as inflation or demand increases may cause their sales to rise exogenously. A new sustainable growth rate formula is developed that describes how much growth the firm with no new debt capacity can endure.