Exploring the future for pensions pillarisation

The pensions pillarisation agenda envisages a reduction in the role of social insurance while simultaneously advocating the parallel expansion of fully funded private sector, occupational and personal retirement contingencies. Widespread perception of looming state failure in the field of pensions delivery highlights the inherent limitations of current pension delivery arrangements. However, moves to de-emphasise the provision afforded by, predominantly, monopillar state-mandated pension systems by expanding private privision represent short-term palliative responses to deep rooted structural and demographic problems. Multipillar systems appear no more capable of guaranteeing system funding in the face of demographic ageing and structural unemployment than existing monopillar systems. Moreover, a diminished role for social insurance will leave the low paid and unemployed significantly more vulnerable in old age. Consequently, this paper argues for a pension reform agenda which, in terms of levels of income substitution, will secure an adequate social insurance element into the future.     

MEASURING THE LIFETIME REDISTRIBUTION ACHIEVED BY DUTCH TAXATION, CASH TRANSFER AND NON-CASH BENEFITS PROGRAMS

This paper assesses how the Dutch system of taxation, cash transfers and non-cash benefits redistributes between the rich and the poor. The approach in this paper deviates from the usual approach by incorporating the full life cycle in the measurements, rather than only the annual effects. Moreover, the coverage is larger than is usually the case: the paper takes account of both direct and indirect taxes and direct and indirect benefits. In order to obtain the measurements on redistribution, we use the level of educational attainment to classify the population. We therefore measure, in terms of present values, the average net benefit from government policies for an average representative person of each level of education. The results indicate a sizable redistribution from the rich to the poor and a significant reduction of welfare inequality. The net effect on welfare inequality is, however, substantially smaller than when measured on an annual basis.     

Money disillusion and stagflation

In the conventional income-expenditure model with rigid wages, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping. Increases in demand therefore imply increases in real output and employment. We demonstrate here that this conclusion depends on the form of money illusion implied by the rigid wage assumption. If we assume instead that labor supply is more sensitive to price increases than to wage increases, the aggregate supply curve is negatively sloped, and the conventional policy multipliers are thereby reversed. In the second section, we show that this result also follows if labor supply depends on the expected real wage.     

Environmental Policy in Open Economies and Monopolistic Competition

This paper analyses the implications of international trade for non-cooperative environmental policy in the case of local production externalities. A particular focus is on the potential effects of regulations on the variety of goods and the resulting international spillover caused by trade. A tougher domestic standard negatively affects the utility of the households abroad, since such a policy reduces their variety of imports (due to fewer domestic product inventions) or their consumption of each imported brand (due to higher import prices). Ignoring the negative spillover, non-cooperative governments implement inefficiently strict standards in equilibrium. In contrast to this clear-cut inefficiency result, the impact of international trade on the state of the environment is ambiguous.     

State Trading and Tariff Rate Quotas: The Case of Korea's Rice Imports

This paper analyzes the effects of trade liberalization of tariff‐rate quotas under import “state trading enterprises” (STEs) in agriculture. An analytical framework is provided to determine the importance of which instrument is binding under competition (the in‐quota or out‐of‐quota tariff or the quota) and under the initial STE equilibrium. It also depends on whether or not the STE controls both the domestic market prices and owns/controls the import quota (and whether it is obligated to fill the quota or not). An empirical example of the rice STE in South Korea has simulations showing that an increase in imports can be achieved through a moderate expansion of the quota or a decrease in the out‐of‐quota tariff to the level where it becomes binding. However, a significant level of quota expansion induces the STE to switch to the autarky solution and social welfare declines.     

Tax evasion and labor markets

Concern with revenue losses, inequities, and inefficiency that may result from tax evasion has produced a number of formal analyses of taxpayer dishonesty. Most of this work has concentrated on the behavior of individual evaders and has ignored the interaction between evasion and labor market equilibrium. To remedy this, our analysis uses a model with two labor markets — which differ in the potential for evasion — to examine how changes in various tax parameters affect evasion and labor market equilibrium. We also simulate the effect of switching from a proportional to a progressive tax system in order to evaluate the well-known claim that progressivity encourages evasion.     

Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession

This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkishaccession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatestnumber of council votes within twenty years, and receive thelargest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkishimmigrant population in Germany from 2 to 3.5 million in thirtyyears. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey,particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accessionare not economic, but political. Historical experience stopsTurkey from eliminating the decisive political role of the military,giving Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and upholdingbasic human rights.(JEL F02, F15, F22)     

Labor Market Developments in Albania: An Analytical Overview

Rising unemployment and falling living standards are two of the main problems facing policymakers in economies in transition. The case of Albania is distinctive, because high unemployment has been associated with a very large private sector and by far the greatest scale of temporary emigration compared with other transition countries in Europe. The authors develop a model that characterizes the path of unemployment in the presence of temporary emigration. They analyze the emigration decision and the factors that affect registered unemployment emigration, and highlight how changes in flow probabilities between sectors affect the time paths of registered unemployment and emigration.