A History of the D–Mark's Real External Value

An equilibrium time path of the real effective exchange rate of Germany's currency in the post Bretton Woods period is calculated. For this purpose, a NATREX model for the long–run determination of this specific variable is developed. A cointegration analysis gives evidence in favour of the model and provides the equilibrium values. The theoretical and empirical results are used to analyse in detail movements in the real exchange rate of the D–Mark. Estimation results suggest, among other things, that the D–Mark has mostly been overvalued and that it often adjusted with some delay to changes in the fundamentals.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.     

Insuring against the shortfall risk associated with real options

We would like to insure against the risk that a geometric Brownian motion, correlated with the price process of a certain traded asset, is in a set E at time T. In this paper it is shown that the best action one can take to insure against this risk is to buy a binary option on the traded asset. We give explicit formulas in the case that E is an infinite interval. The setting of all our investigations is the Black-Scholes model. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 60J65, 62P05, 91B30, 62F03 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G31     

Institutionalism versus Orthodoxy

A bstract . Orthodox economics has been quite effective in exploiting equilibrium methodology; equilibrium as a heuristic device, as a theoretical norm, and as a prototype of the scientific method. Also, orthodoxy has contrived the dichotomy of equilibrium-anti-equilibrium to depict institutional thought as being muddled and unscientific. Institutionalists have not successfully countered these attacks, nor have they adequately articulated a comprehensive methodological alternative to orthodoxy. Institutionalists have paid too much attention to the methodological components of institutionalism and have neglected the articulation of a guiding, overall methodology. It is proposed that institutionalists recast the methodological debate by expanding the arena from equilibrium-anti-equilibrium analysis to the broader context of closed versus open systems analysis. This would both help expose the methodological weaknesses of orthodox economics, and demonstrate the relevance and power of institutionalism for socioeconomic investigation.     

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

Recent empirical work shows evidence for higher valuation of firms in countries with a better legal environment. We investigate whether differences in the quality of firm‐level corporate governance also help to explain firm performance in a cross‐section of companies within a single jurisdiction. Constructing a broad corporate governance rating (CGR) for German public firms, we document a positive relationship between governance practices and firm valuation. There is also evidence that expected stock returns are negatively correlated with firm‐level corporate governance, if dividend yields are used as proxies for the cost of capital. An investment strategy that bought high‐CGR firms and shorted low‐CGR firms earned abnormal returns of around 12% on an annual basis during the sample period.     

Daniel Süss

Ohne Zusammenfassung