Modelling exchange of probabilistic opinions

Summary. This paper studies how communication or exchange of opinions influences correlation of beliefs. The paper focuses on a situation in which agents communicate with each other infinitely many times without observing data. It is an extension to the ‘Expert Problem’ in Bayesian theory, where the informational flow is asymmetric. Moreover, this paper generalizes the existing literature of communication that employs the common prior assumption (CPA) by allowing for heterogeneous beliefs. Some basic convergence results are shown in contrast with the results obtained under the CPA. Furthermore, several economic implications of the basic results are provided. Received: August 27, 2001; revised version: April 16, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" The results presented in this paper are taken from my Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with Mordecai Kurz about this subject. Also, I appreciate comments from Kenneth J. Arrow, Peter J. Hammond, Maurizio Motolese, Carsten K. Nielsen, Ho-Mou Wu and the anonymous referee.     

Agriculture–nutrition linkages with heterogeneous,unobserved returns and costs: Insights from Tajikistan

Agriculture–nutrition linkages (ANLs) have been increasingly investigated in the literature. However, nutritional returns and costs of household agricultural production practices (APPs) in semisubsistence settings are poorly understood. We fill these knowledge gaps using pooled cross-section data sets in Tajikistan, where semisubsistence farming and undernutrition coexist despite relatively good agricultural infrastructure and education systems. Agricultural diversification, yield enhancement, production expansion are positively associated with various nutritional outcomes, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Decomposition exercises suggest that nutritional returns and costs of these APPs vary across households, and the adoption of APPs is driven by the expected nutritional returns. In Tajikistan, improving nutrition through household ANLs requires growing the smallholder agricultural sector in multiple dimensions, including diversification, intensification, and expansion, while also understanding better the pathways of ANLs and addressing bottlenecks at appropriate stages of such pathways.     

IPO share allocation and conflicts of interest

The underwriter of an IPO has two sources of compensation for its services on behalf of the issuer. One is through a commission (spread), the other is by buying issued shares for itself (or its affiliates) and reselling them in the post-issue market. Profits from the former decrease along with the magnitude of underpricing while profits from the latter increase with it. Faced with these countervailing interests, the present paper analyzes how the underwriter decides upon the pricing and allocation of IPOs.      

Non‐compliance with the Minimum Wage Law when Completely New Minimum Wage Laws Are Established: The Case of South Africa

Abstract: Using the case of South Africa, we study compliance with the minimum wage law when completely new minimum wage levels are established. By even the best estimate, the compliance rate in South Africa would not exceed 40 per cent for the agricultural sector and 30 per cent for the domestic worker sector. The compliance rates by subpopulation groups reveal that the compliance rate is low where the cost to comply with the minimum wage law is high, implying that government inspections are not done where they are likely to have the highest payoff. However, if the government tries to enforce the policy more strictly, the poor/less skilled would be adversely affected.     

Spatial provision of local public goods with spillover effects

Most of the works dealing with local public goods are aspatial in their treatment since they consider only the case of a pure local public good; such works do not address the problem of where the good is to be supplied. In this paper, an initial attempt to treat the distribution of an impure local public good as a choice function is made within the framework of optimum urban land use. The distance-decay nature of spillover effects inherent in an impure local public good is explicitly considered by adopting a negative exponential function. To highlight the spatial aspect of an impure local public good, a two-supply-site problem with a log-linear utility function is formulated to determine the optimal supply sites. It is shown that if the weight of the utility function on the public service is greater than or equal to that on land, then the local public good is exclusively supplied at the center. Otherwise, separate supply sites can be optimal.     

The Impact of Regional Factors on the Start‐Up Ratio in Japan*

We analyze regional factors of the start‐up ratio in Japan using two datasets with different regional aggregation levels. The explanatory variables represent demand, cost, human resource, financial, industry agglomeration and industrial structure, and other factors. The empirical results demonstrate that even though all these factors significantly affect the start‐up ratio at the municipality level, some of these factors are not significant at a larger economic area level. In particular, we obtained evidence that human resource factors, together with the average wage and average size of establishments, are important determinants of the regional start‐up ratio in both the samples.     

Modified Quasi‐Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching

In this paper we propose a modified quasi‐likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of two regimes in Markov regime‐switching models. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is a simple function of Gaussian random variables, and the inference is no more complicated than in the standard case. Our simulations show that the proposed test has good finite sample size and power that are comparable to the quasi‐likelihood ratio test of Cho and White. We apply our test to stock returns and Japanese policy functions.     

The “Boston” school-choice mechanism: an axiomatic approach

The Boston mechanism is a popular student-placement mechanism in school-choice programs around the world. We provide two characterizations of the Boston mechanism. We introduce two new axioms; favoring higher ranks and rank-respecting invariance. A mechanism is the Boston mechanism for some priority if and only if it favors higher ranks and satisfies consistency, resource monotonicity, and rank-respecting invariance. In environments where each type of object has exactly one unit, as in house allocation, a characterization is given by favoring higher ranks, individual rationality, population monotonicity, and rank-respecting invariance.