Creation of models for calculation of coefficients of terrain passability

Quality & Quantity - The content of this article is a paper about a complex mathematical model of terrain passability which respects geographical and meteorological conditions in terrain and...     

Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in Equity Partnerships: Evidence from Hollywood's Slate Financing Agreements

We use a movie industry project‐by‐project data set to analyze the principal–agent problem in slate financing arrangements. Under this specific film financing regime, which has become a significant mode of raising capital in Hollywood over the past decade, an external investor concludes a long‐term contract with a film producer and commits to cofinance a larger number of future film projects of that particular partner. In line with our theoretical conjectures, slate cofinanced movies receive poorer quality ratings and yield considerably lower return rates. Our data suggests that a substantial part of these performance differences may be attributed to adverse project selection and producer moral hazard.     

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a 'trend map' which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends - to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.     

House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy

This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices,and economic activity in industrialized countries over the lastthree decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panelvector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006.The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) Thereis evidence of a significant multidirectional link between houseprices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The linkbetween house prices and monetary variables is found to be strongerover a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effectsof shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger whenhouse prices are booming.     

Credibility,currency convertibility and the stabilisation of the rouble

The measures taken so far to move towards currency convertibility and combat inflation in Russia and the other CIS countries are based largely on a three-stage programme formulated by the IMF. The following article presents alternatives and compares them with the IMF concept from the point of view of credibility.     

Aktuelle Entwicklungen und Best Practices aus Finanzen und Controlling

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area

In this paper we assess the empirical performance of commonlyused empirical specifications of the baseline New Keynesianmodel for the US and the euro area. We estimate standard specificationsof the model and extended specifications also including non-standarddeterminants of aggregate supply and demand. The results suggestthat based on the standard specifications it is often not possibleto establish a significant link between the monetary policyinstrument and output and inflation. Based on the extended specificationsof the model, which take into account the significant effectof commodity prices on inflation and of house prices on theoutput gap, we are generally able to restore a significant monetarytransmission channel. (JEL E3, E52, C22)