Does microtherm boost pharmaceutical companies’ market capitalization returns?

The purpose of this study was to survey the relationship between the temperature factors and market capitalization returns of pharmaceutical companies by analysing both the daily and weekly frequency data in Taiwan. The threshold regression model with the GJR-GARCH process was applied for examination in this study; we found that pharmaceutical companies’ market capitalization returns could be boosted after exposure to extremely low temperatures for a period of time. Besides, the delayed effect of cold weather is demonstrated to exist. This phenomenon can be illustrated by epidemiological evidence-related mental factors, not by traditional behavioural finance. Moreover, lower weekly average temperatures are beneficial for investors to gain weekly pharmaceutical companies’ market capitalization returns. We are of the opinion that our findings offer an insightful suggestion for investors to buy pharmaceutical stocks at an opportune moment.     

试论构建地方政府债务绩效考核指标体系

公共产品理论认为,地方政府债务是一把“双刃剑”,如何发挥其积极作用具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章通过构建地方政府债务绩效考核指标体系和分析模型,对当地政府债务投入绩效进行考核。地方政府根据绩效考核结果和当地财政收支情况及经济发展战略,从债务投入的源头入手,引导其投入领域和项目及投入规模,提高债务资金的使用效益,充分发挥债务资金这把“双刃剑”的积极作用,防范债务风险的发生。     

Dynamic capabilities and radical innovation performance in established firms: a structural model

The paper extends Teece’s model of dynamic capabilities (2007 Teece, D. 2007. “Explicating Dynamic Capabilities: The Nature and Microfoundations of (Sustainable) Enterprise Performance.” Strategic Management Journal 28 (13): 1319–1350. doi: 10.1002/smj.640[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) into four types of capabilities: sensing, coordination, autonomy and reconfiguration capabilities. We further develop a structural model between four types of dynamic capabilities and radical innovation performance (RIP) in established firms. Based on a dataset of top 500 manufacturing established firms in Taiwan, the proposed hypotheses are tested using the structural equation models. The results reveal that four types of dynamic capabilities and RIP are positively correlated in a sequential and structural manner. This paper concludes the systemic development of dynamic capabilities can improve RIP in established firms. Finally, we point out some managerial implications for improving RIP in established firms.     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

A re-examination of the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields

In this article we re-examine the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields using a two-step model. In the first step, we adopt an ordered probit technique to obtain consistent estimates of state bond default risk. In the second step, we estimate state bond risk premiums using a regression analysis with a categorized risk variable obtained from the first step. Similar to Terza (1987) and Hsiao (1983), the model involves a categorized ordinal explanatory (rating) variable. However, our two-step model deals with a case where category thresholds are unknown and dependent on economic factors. The model provides consistent estimates for the effects of ratings and economic factors on state bond yields. Contrary to previous findings, we find that state bond yields are mainly affected by fundamental economic variables.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan

Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.     

西部地区村级规划体系构建研究

构建适于西部地区农村发展的村级规划体系、编制实用型村庄规划,对于实施乡村振兴战略和农村人居环境整治工程具有重要的理论探索和实践意义。文章在剖析西部地区村级规划编制中存在的"缺位或流于形式、实用性较差、无视规划用地"等问题基础上,采用对比分析法,厘清村级层面各类规划相互关系,进而提出村级规划体系构建的原则与框架。研究表明:(1)西部地区村庄规划体系建立与规划编制迫在眉睫;(2)现有主要村级层面规划中,乡村振兴战略规划是村庄产业发展导向与战略功能定位,村土地利用规划是村庄用地空间布局与管制规划,共同构成多元化完整的村庄规划体系;(3)"一张图"融合、战略定位先行、公众参与等是构建实用型村级规划体系的基本原则;(4)村级规划体系的逻辑架构为"双结构""双理念"和"5维导向",实施模式以"1+N模式";(5)西部地区村级规划应以多个村落共同编制为主要形式,同时探索留白机制,提高规划弹性。     

Simultaneous screening and college admissions

We analyze a simultaneous screening problem in competition among top schools. The model predicts that when the second best school has similar prestige to the best one it could attract better students by choosing the same entrance examination date.