The growth dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory

The phenomenal growth of Internet users is slowing down and we expect to approach a world limit in the next decade of about 14% of the world population. On the basis of a historical analysis this basic innovation is placed in the context of the Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) and the associated Generational-Learning model. A quantitative analysis using logistic growth curves allows us to evaluate its growth dynamics and to assert that the Internet is coming to the end of the 4th K-wave downswing or innovation structural phase and will then embark on the 5th K-wave upswing or consolidation structural phase. The debate about the future of the K-wave pattern is considered, specifically the factors bearing on the continuation or alteration of the pattern and the trajectory.     

Consumer motivation: A developmental self concept approach

Self theory is reviewed and then operationalized as three modes of the self concept—“actual,” “expected,” and “ideal.” Results support hypotheses concerning agreement across subjects for self concept modes within personality and products and services categories, individual consistency among self concept modes, and developmental directionality over time.     

Adverse selection problems without the Spence-Mirrlees condition

This paper studies a class of one-dimensional screening problems where the agent's utility function does not satisfy the Spence-Mirrlees condition (SMC). The strength of the SMC for hidden information problems is to provide a full characterization of implementable contracts using only the local incentive compatibility (IC) constraints. These constraints are equivalent to the monotonicity of the decision variable with respect to the agent's unobservable one-dimensional parameter. When the SMC is violated the local IC constraints are no longer sufficient for implementability and additional (global) IC constraints have to be taken into account. In particular, implementable decisions may not be monotonic and discretely pooled types must have the same marginal utility of the decision (or equivalently, get the same marginal tariff). Moreover, at the optimal decision, the principal must preserve the same trade-off between rent extraction and allocative distortion measured in the agent's marginal rent unit. In a specific setting where non-monotone contracts may be optimal we fully characterize the solution.     

Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico

Transgenic crop varieties (TGVs) are being promoted as essential for improving small-scale Third World (SSTW) agriculture. Most economic research on this topic makes critical, untested assumptions, including that farmers will choose TGVs over other varieties because TGVs are economically optimal and because farmers are risk neutral profit maximizers. We tested these assumptions using data from a survey of 334 farmers in 6 communities in Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico in which farmers ranked 4 real and hypothetical maize varieties for eating and sowing. Our results did not support these assumptions. Most farmers preferred farmer varieties for sowing and especially for eating, avoiding TGVs, a preference associated with being risk averse and with non-monetary preferences. Farmers more integrated into modern agriculture were more likely to choose TGVs. These results suggest that farmers most in need of support and most important for conserving genetic diversity are least favorable toward TGVs, and that alternative ways of improving SSTW agriculture should receive more attention.     

Estimation of output loss from allocative inefficiency: A comparison of the Soviet Union and the U.S.

This paper presents two different estimates of the output loss resulting from allocative inefficiency in the Soviet Union and the United States. Surprisingly, the evidence from our examination of nine industrial sectors during the period 1960–1984 shows only small differences in measured allocative inefficiency between the United States and Soviet economies. Instead of immediately rejecting this result as the product of unreliable data and insurmountable methodological difficulties, we present a plausible explanation for the unexpectedly strong performance of Soviet-type economies in the allocation of labor and capital across sectors. If true, the finding of relatively low levels of resource misallocation implies that the source of poor economic performance in Soviet-type economies must be due to technical inefficiency, slow technological change, and/or production of the wrong mix of outputs.     

Five-Stage Acculturation Process of Hispanic Consumers: Theory,Method, and Findings

This study aims at reproducing the acculturation process for adult consumers, introducing continuous measures to reveal the acculturation process’ dynamic nature, and identifying a transitional state. Using U.S. Hispanic consumers as a cardinal example, and six coordinated consumer samples, this study introduces continuous measures of cultural awareness and ethnic loyalty. The revision taken herein overcomes limitations of existing theories and models by better measuring two key forces shaping the acculturation process of Hispanic consumers and by finding a transitional state of resiliency, thereby showing that the process of consumer acculturation can best be reflected in a typology of five states.     

Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta

A simple cointegration methodology is used to compute the equilibrium real exchange rate for the peseta. The stock of foreign assets and the evolution of sectoral prices are considered to be the fundamentals for the real exchange rate. After testing for cointegration, we proceed to decompose the series into a permanent and a transitory component, following the method devised by Gonzalo and Granger. The permanent component of the real exchange rate corresponds to its (time-varying) equilibrium value, and the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from this equilibrium value gives an estimation of the degree of misalignment of the real exchange rate. By the end of the sample (1998:1), the peseta is estimated to be undervalued around 6%.