Uncertainty in Prerelease Advertising

Firms frequently advertise products and services before they are launched. Yet how to best design such advertisements is not well understood. The current article investigates how consumers respond to uncertainty in prerelease advertisements. Across five studies, including both field and lab studies, we first provide evidence for the positive effect of uncertain prerelease advertisements using real consumer behavior on Facebook and YouTube and at the box office. Next, we uncover the mechanism underlying this effect (i.e., inflated outcome expectancies), outline a managerially relevant boundary condition (i.e., the positive effect reverses when a preorder opportunity is offered), and demonstrate that the effect of uncertainty on consumer response differs in prerelease versus postrelease advertisements depending on consumers’ perceived risk. Finally, we discuss implications for marketing research as well as for the design of prerelease advertisements for stimulating prerelease buzz and word of mouth.     

CAP Reforms in the 1990s and their Price and Welfare Implications: The Case of Wheat

We use a nonlinear commodity market model to assess, theoretically and empirically, the impacts of recent reforms of the CAP on prices and economic welfare in the EU. The empirical analysis is based on an aggregate structural econometric model of the EU wheat economy and its links to the rest of the world. Instability issues are also investigated. Impacts of CAP reforms on the variance of domestic and world prices are analysed and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate uncertainty in the model's welfare computations. Recent reforms led to a net welfare gain within the EU during the period 1993–2000. Additional budgetary costs are less than the welfare gains of consumers and producers. Producers gained as lower price support was overcompensated by additional direct payments.     

Regulating Availability with Demand Uncertainty

Abstract. I evaluate a new German regulation that requires retail discounters to guarantee the availability of their products in bargain sales. The regulation is meant to prevent loss leaders. Retailers undermine the regulation's rationale by claiming that rationing is due to demand uncertainty. This paper shows that under demand uncertainty the regulation has ambiguous welfare effects. Effectively, it raises production, which, under imperfect competition, tends to be beneficial. However, the regulation overshoots and decreases welfare if it requires availability for a state of high demand that is relatively unlikely. In this case more sophisticated regulation is required.     

Deterministic versus stochastic mechanisms in principal-agent models

This paper shows that, contrary to what is generally believed, decreasing concavity of the agent's utility function with respect to the screening variable is not sufficient to ensure that stochastic mechanisms are suboptimal. The paper demonstrates, however, that they are suboptimal whenever the optimal deterministic mechanism exhibits no bunching. This is the case for most applications of the theory and therefore validates the literature's usual focus on deterministic mechanisms.     

Self-control in peer groups

Social influences on self-control underlie both self-help groups and many peer interactions among youths. To understand these phenomena, we analyze how observing each other's behavior affects individuals’ ability to deal with their own impulses. These endogenous informational spillovers lead to either a unique “good news” equilibrium that ameliorates behavior, a unique “bad news equilibrium” that worsens it, or to the coexistence of both. A welfare analysis shows that people will find social interactions valuable only when they have enough confidence in their own and others’ ability to resist temptation. The ideal partner, however, is someone with a slightly worse self-control problem than one's own: this makes his successes more encouraging, and his failures less discouraging.     

Translating sustainable and smart city strategies into performance measurement systems

This paper shows how sustainable and smart strategies can be implemented in cities and how these strategies influence, and are influenced by, performance measurement systems. Drawing upon the Foucauldian notion of governmentality, the authors present the case of Gothenburg in Sweden, where they interviewed the key actors involved in a new sustainability strategy. Translating strategy into performance measurement systems requires collaboration across organizational boundaries and considerations of financial goals and social and human aspects.     

Should we delight the customer?

Critics have suggested that delighting the customer “raises the bar” of customer expectations, making it more difficult to satisfy the customer in the next purchase cycle and hurting the firm in the long run. The authors explore this issue by using a mathematical model of delight, based on assumptions gathered from the customer satisfaction literature. Although delighting the customer heightens repurchase expectations and makes satisfying the customer more difficult in the future, and the delighting firm is injured by raised customer expectations, the (nondelighting) competition is hurt worse through customer attrition to the delighting firm. If customers forget delighting incidents to some degree from occasion to occasion, the delighting firm suffers if it is in a position to take customers from the competition. If taking customers from the competition is difficult, the delighting firm actually benefits from customer forgetting, because the same delighting experience can be repeated again, with the same effect. Roland T. Rust (Ph.D., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) is the Madison S. Wigginton Professor of Management and Director of the Center for Service Marketing at the Owen Graduate School of Management at Vanderbilt University. His publication record includes more than 60 journal articles and five books. His 1997Marketing Science article, “Customer Satisfaction, Productivity, and Profitability: Differences Between Goods and Services,” won the Best Services Article Award from the American marketing Association, for the best services article in any journal, and his 1995 article, “Return on Quality (ROQ): Making Service Quality Financially Accountable,” won theJournal of Marketing's Alpha Kappa Psi Award for the article with the greatest impact on marketing practice. He has also won best article awards from theJournal of Advertising and theJournal of Retailing. His honors include career achievement awards from the American Statistical Association and the American Academy of Advertising, as well as the Henry Latané Distinguished Doctoral Alumnus Award from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His work has been covered widely in the media and has resulted in aBusiness Week cover story and an appearance onABC World News Tonight with Peter Jennings. He is the founder and chair of the American Marketing Association (AMA) Frontiers in Services Conference and serves as founding editor of theJournal of Service Research. He also serves on the editorial review boards of theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, andMarketing Science. Richard L. Oliver (Ph.D., University of Wisconsin, Madison) is the Valere Blair Potter Professor of Management at the Owen Graduate School of Management, Vanderbilt, University. His research interests include consumer psychology with a special focus on customer satisfaction and postpurchase processes. He holds the position of Fellow of the American Psychological Association for his extensive writings on the psychology of the satisfaction response. He is the author ofSatisfaction: A Behavioral Perspective on the Consumer (Irwin/McGraw-Hill) and coeditor ofService Quality: New Directions in Theory and Practice (Sage). He previously served on the boards of theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, and theJournal of Retailing and has published articles in theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Applied Psychology, Psychology & Marketing, Behavioral Science, theJournal of Economic Psychology, Applied Psychological Measurement, Psychometrika, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Advances in Consumer Research, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, theJournal of Consumer Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction & Complaining Behavior, theJournal of Advertising, theJournal of Consumer Affairs, and others. He previously taught at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and at Washington University in St. Louis.     

COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - As symbolized by vacant office buildings, empty shopping malls and abandoned flats in metropolitan areas, the new coronavirus disease 2019 has severely...