Measurement of the Socioeconomic Impact of Lake Restoration: An Assessment Model Employing a Benefit/Cost Cross-Impact Probabilistic Approach

A bstract . A number of lake restoration demonstraton projects have been launched by the Environmental Protection Agency as a result of Public Law 92-500. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these public investment projects requires the development of an assessment model. The proposed Benefit/Cost Cross-Impact Probabilistic Approach (BCCIPA) is one attempt at assessing the interdependent socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the lake restoration project over time, both quantitatively and qualitatively, so that various changes brought about by the project can be investigated and evaluated in two comparative stages for three points in time—before, during and after project implementation.     

Income distribution as an objective in development planning

Summary In an input-output framework, income distribution among classes depends on final demand. Traditionally, it has been assumed that the policy-maker selects a distribution vector maximizing his preference function, and it has been attempted to determine this function by an interview. Here, we assume that the policy-maker does not know his preference function but constructs its relevant parts in a communication process with his adviser. This process converges to a (classwise) Pareto-optimal distribution vector and under some further assumptions, any such vector may be attained in principle. Colombian data are used for illustration.I am indebted to Dr. Jacques Melitz for improving my English and to Mr. Roland Fahrion for computational assistance. Nevertheless, I assume sole responsibility for any remaining deficiencies of this paper.     

Zur Einbeziehung kapazitiver Effekte von Nettoinvestitionen in Input-Outputmodelle

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in equations describing the demand for money during rapid inflations

Estimating econometric equations with linear autoregressive error terms is standard if the covariance matrix of these error terms are homoskedastic. However, if heteroskedasticity prevails, this heteroskedasticity should be taken into account in order to obtain efficient estimates. In this paper, the well-known maximum-likelihood estimation method due to Beach and MacKinnon (1978) is extended to the heteroskedastic case and then applied to equations describing the demand for money in advanced inflations. Since this method isnot a straightforward generalization of the Beach-MacKinnon procedure, it not necessarily leads to estimates which are to be preferred to those obtained under the assumption of homoskedasticity.     

Eine Typisierung dynamischer Input-Outputmodelle

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Export and import prices of the developing areas in the sixties

Zusammenfassung Export- und Importpreise für Entwicklungsgebiete in den sechziger Jahren. — Führte die milde Inflation in den entwickelten L?ndern w?hrend der sechziger Jahre zu einer Verschlechterung der Terms of trade der Entwicklungsl?nder? Lateinamerika, Afrika und der Mittlere Osten werden als je ein Gebiet aufgefa\t und die Export- und Importpreise jedes dieser Entwicklungsgebiete werden in einem kleinen ?konometrischen Modell mit den Export- und Importpreisen, dem BSP-Deflator und einem Lohnindex für die entwickelten Marktwirtschaften verbunden. Die Preise in den entwickelten L?ndern erkl?ren die Terms of trade in den Entwicklungsl?ndern recht gut. Nur die Terms of trade des Mittleren Ostens verschlechtern sich in dem betrachteten Zeitraum wesentlich.

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Résumé Les prix à l'exportation et à l'importation des régions développantes dans les années soixante. — Est-ce que l'inflation modérée dans les pays développés pendant les années soixante cause une détérioration des termes des échanges des pays développants ? Nous développons un petit modèle économétrique pour chaque des régions développantes l'Amérique Latine, l'Afrique développante et le Moyen-Orient liant les prix à l'exportation et à l'importation de ces régions développantes aux prix à l'exportation et à l'importation, au déflateur PNB et à un indice de salaire des économies du marché développées. Ces prix dans les pays développés expliquent les termes des échanges des régions développantes assez bien. Cependant seuls les termes des échanges du Moyen-Orient détériorent significativement.

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Resumen Precios de importación y de exportación de las areas en desarrollo en los anos sesenta. — Causó la débil inflación en los pa?ses desarrollados durante los anos sesenta un deterioro de los términos del intercambio de los países en desarrollo? Se desarrolla un pequeno modelo econométrico para cada una de las áreas en desarrollo, América Latina, los países africanos en desarrollo, y el Medio Oriente, ligando los precios de importación y de exportaci?n de estas áreas en desarrollo con los precios de importación y exportación, el deflactor del PNB y el indice salarial de los paises de mercado desarrollados. Los precios en los países desarrollados explican los términos del intercambio de las áreas en desarrollo bastante bien. Sin embargo, solamente los términos del intercambio del Medio Oriente se deterioran significativamente.

     

A necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of the expansion rates in the von Neumann growth model

We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of the maximal physical and the minimal economic expansion rate in a linear von Neumann model. It is a generalization of Gale's sufficient condition which postulates the absence of independent subsets of commodities. We argue that the von Neumann model is of little economic interest if this condition is not fulfilled, since then only free goods are produced and only some or all of those goods which are not produced at all have positive prices.