A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures

Forecasting performance of December corn and November soybean futures contracts during the previous spring was evaluated using the commonly specified price-level and percent-change models. These models invoke different assumptions regarding stationarity. Using Stein's analytical framework, results for the price-level model suggest avoidable social loss existed in the soybean market since 1973, because November futures provided biased forecasts. Regression R²s for both corn and soybeans declined substantially between 1952–1972 and 1973–1997, suggesting total social loss increased. By contrast, results from the percent-change model suggest only unavoidable social loss existed in the corn and soybean markets, because the futures provided unbiased forecasts. R² increased for corn but declined for soybeans, suggesting unavoidable social loss declined for corn, but increased for soybeans. The important, conflicting nature of the results from the two models underscores the importance of examining alternative model specifications when evaluating price forecasting performance. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 604–618, 1999     

Coasean bargaining with symmetric delay costs

Delay costs play a role in Coasean bargaining over environmental conflicts when an injunction restricts actions until a settlement is reached. Results from the lab suggest that efficiency remained relatively robust to discrete and increasing marginal delay costs, but declined significantly with nonincreasing marginal delay costs. Bargainers appear to deal with probability and consequences separately rather than in combination as maintained by expected utility theory, and as such, neglect ends over means. How the distribution of wealth is best organized depends on perspective: constrained self-interest best organizes behavior if expected utility is maintained; pure self-interest dominates if we acknowledge the probability–consequence heuristic.     

PROJECTION MODELS FOR U.K. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*

Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels.     

Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure.     

The measurement of left-right and libertarian-authoritarian values: A comparison of balanced and unbalanced scales

In this paper we compare the performance of balanced and unbalanced Likert scales of two core dimensions of political attitudes: left-right and libertarian-authoritarian values. The balanced scales control for the effects of acquiescence response sets, whereas the unbalanced scales do not. Using data from two panel surveys, balanced and unbalanced scales are compared for reliability, stability and validity both with each other, and with other measures of political ideology and values (left-right self-placement and postmaterialism). Both balanced and unbalanced versions of the left-right and libertarian-authoritarian Likert scales are found to be more stable and strongly associated with social characteristics than are the other measures. The unbalanced scales have slightly higher reliability than the balanced scales; they are also orthogonal, whereas balanced left-right and libertarian-authoritarian scales are moderately correlated. Unbalanced scales also display a slightly stronger relationship with social characteristics, but they do not differ in their pattern of association with political preferences. Differences between balanced and unbalanced scales are attributed to the effects of acquiescence bias. This needs to be considered when using the scales for substantive analyses, but its effects are not problematic.     

An exploratory review of global leadership: The example of French and British leadership styles

The emerging global leader must demonstrate specific competencies to succeed in the international marketplace. International leaders must be able to create strategic partnerships with individuals from different cultures. In this article, the author, after reviewing state of the art research in the field, describes the difficulties involved in leading multicultural teams in Franco–British collaborative ventures. Corporate human resource managers at British Petroleum and Vivendi Corporation in the United Kingdom and Eurotunnel Corporation in France revealed that cultural differences impact international leadership styles.     

Balancing corporate culture: Grid-group and Austrian economics

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly to discuss the foundations of Grid-Group “Cultural Theory” and highlight the compatibility with Austrian economics, and secondly to apply this framework to the context of organisational culture. My claim is that “Corporate Cultural Theory” provides a rigorous and grounded social anthropological framework to take Austrian economics beyond its traditional uses and improve upon competing explanations of corporate culture.     

A methodology for the assessment of ridesharing program benefits and impacts

Due to the increased cost and decreased availability of energy, many cities are developing experimental ridesharing programs. The evaluation of such public transportation programs often involves some form of benefit/cost analysis. In this paper we review a methodology proposed by Wagner for calculating ridesharing program benefits. We propose a modification for calculating vehicle-miles reduction and suggest a survey instrument for collecting the appropriate data. In addition, we present a surrogate measure which is simpler to compute and allows sensitivity analysis for incorporating certain intangible factors. Data from a survey conducted in the Greater Cincinnati area is used to illustrate the calculations. The results can be useful in evaluating other ridesharing programs.     

Regulation,reputation, and environmental risk

This paper examines how preferences for social reputation affect the design of monetary incentives in an efficient mechanism for environmental risk. Our results are a high reputation firm receives less than optimal transfer; the low reputation firm sacrifices information rent.