Forecasting exchange rates with elliptically symmetric principal components

We extract elliptically symmetric principal components from a panel of 17 OECD exchange rates and use the deviations from the components to forecast future exchange rate movements, following the method in Engel et al. (2015). Instead of using standard factor models, we apply elliptically symmetric principal component analysis (ESPCA), introduced by Solat and Spanos (2018), which captures both contemporaneous and temporal co-variation among the exchange rates. We find that ESPCA is more accurate than forecasts generated by existing standard methods and the random walk model, with or without including macroeconomic fundamentals.     

Economic development and evolving state capacities in Central and Eastern Europe: can “smart specialization” make a difference?

We position “smart specialization” (SS) as the third external and conditionality-based reform of economic policy rationales – after Washington Consensus and Europeanization – in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We discuss what kind of state, policy, and administrative capacities, or routines, SS presumes. We show that over the years CEE economies have built very different routines, especially for policy coordination and public–private interactions. Design and implementation of functional SS strategies requires critical attention and development of these routines through contextual policy experimentation in all CEE regions. We provide some general guidelines for this.