Planning and managing primary care services: lessons from the NHS in England

High-quality primary care services are an essential part of a successful health service. However, the planning and management of such services is complex. Using evidence from a study of recent extensive changes in the English NHS, the authors highlight the need for local service oversight by managers who understand local conditions and needs. The recent English experience supports an incremental policy adjustment approach, rather than wholesale organizational change.     

To Centralise or Disperse – A Question for Interpretation: A Case Study of Interpretive Planning in the Brecks

The connections between interpretation and sustainable tourism are gradually being realised and it is now generally accepted that interpretation, if planned carefully and sensitively, can contribute in a variety of ways to sustainable tourism development. This paper reports on a case study of sustainable interpretive planning in the Brecks countryside straddling the Norfolk–Suffolk border in the UK. The key question raised is: if interpretation is to be fully accepted as a mechanism in developing sustainable tourism practices should interpretation be planned and implemented in a dispersed or in a centralised fashion? A review of several projects undertaken in a variety of UK destinations illustrates that this question is far from straightforward, and that the results are far from conclusive. The paper discusses the way in which this question was addressed in the Brecks and why the dispersal option was adopted.     

Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets

In this study, we investigated the application of the conformal prediction (CP) concept in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. In particular, we determined the most important aspects related to the utility of CP, as well as explaining why this simple but highly effective idea has proved useful in other application areas and why its characteristics make it promising for short-term power applications. We compared the performance of CP with various state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting models, such as quantile regression averaging, in an empirical out-of-sample study of three short-term electricity time series. We combined CP with various underlying point forecast models to demonstrate its versatility and behavior under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that CP yields sharp and reliable prediction intervals in short-term power markets. We also inspected the effects of each of the model components to provide path-based guideline regarding how to find the best CP model for each market.     

Not every public sector is a field: evidence from the recent overhaul of the English NHS

ABSTRACT

A structural interpretation of institutionalism has become dominant in public management research. Yet, studies tend to assume an institutional-level phenomenon without specifying how an organizational field was identified or whether structural characteristics can indeed be found in the organizational population studied. This lacuna is illustrated by exploring the structural interpretation of the field construct in the case of the recent overhaul of English primary care. Findings demonstrate the need for a more robust application of institutionalism in empirical research. Possible research problems for public management and a future research agenda based on a more relational approach to fields are discussed.     

What foresight! Understanding Australia's housing future

Futures analysis has been little used to inform housing policy debate, despite the fact that historical precedent is becoming increasingly limited as a guide for policy direction. This paper examines the potential utility of ‘strategic foresight’ in considering possible housing futures for Australia. It examines the particular foresight methods employed, and processes used, to develop possible housing futures in the year 2025 and their policy implications. The paper concludes that foresight analysis, although not without its problems, creates the opportunity to move beyond current thinking and ‘path dependent’ policy parameters, enabling discussion of housing futures in a way that prompts critical discussion of the institutional arrangements and policies that shape housing policy in the present.