Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

Production Technology Estimates and Balanced Growth

Capital‐labour substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of many economic models. Such models typically embody a balanced growth path. This often leads researchers to estimate models imposing stringent prior choices on technical change. We demonstrate that estimation of the substitution elasticity and TFP growth can be substantially biased if technical progress is thereby mis‐specified. We obtain analytical and simulation results in the context of a model consistent with balanced and near‐balanced growth (i.e. departures from balanced growth but broadly stable factor shares). Given this evidence, a constant elasticity of substitution production function system is then estimated for the US economy. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor‐augmenting specification (well below one). We are also able to reject conventional neutrality forms in favour of general factor augmentation with a non‐negligible capital‐augmenting component. Our work thus provides insights into production and supply‐side estimation in balanced‐growth frameworks.     

Beyond flexibility: reallocation of responsibilities in the case of telework

Based on eight in‐depth case studies, this paper argues that telework transfers bigger (and legally unbinding) responsibility to employees whereas both employees and employers accept it. This is likely due to the fact that adoption of telework alters some aspects of psychological contract between employees and employers.     

An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs

This paper develops an econometric model that can provide predictions of fire suppression costs (per acre and in total) for a given large fire before final fire acreage is known. The model jointly estimates cost per acre and acreage equations via Maximum Likelihood, accounting for sample truncation based on final fire size. Formulas and results are shown for predictions of costs and fire size for wildfires in general, and for large fires in particular. Marginal effects of explanatory variables on cost and acreage are discussed. The distribution of these model predictions illustrates the importance of accounting for sample truncation when generating predicted outcomes based on ex ante information.     

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations

The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale New Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenario analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elasticities of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions.We assume that agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimisation problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depend strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible.     

The Viability of Trade Union Organization: A Bargaining Unit Analysis

The paper develops a model of trade union behaviour based on the concept of the viable bargaining unit. Viability rests on five conditions: membership level, service level, membership participation, employer recognition, and facilities. Unions are seen as portfolios of viable and inviable bargaining units. Six propositions are derived, concerning union scale, growth, the impact of statutory recognition provisions, the emergence of conglomerate unions, governance structures, and relations with employers. Employer dependence is central, and a simple game‐theoretic approach is used to discuss employer co‐operation. Viability at the union level is achieved by portfolio diversification and employer co‐operation.     

Still balancing the books: the NUM and the 1984–85 strike

In the context of the NUM's decision to seek a merger, this article examines the financial impact of the 1984–85 strike. In conducting the strike, its federal structure is shown to have provided the union leadership with flexibility. But it has limited the capacity to recover afterwards and has consequences for merger prospects with other unions.     

Merger propensity and merger outcomes among British unions, 1986-1995

This article focuses on the relationship between merger propensity and merger success in British trade unions. Using survey data it reveals that more unions seek merger than achieve it; most mergers in the period are accounted for by few unions. However, some merger discussions are protracted and the determinants of propensity are distinct from those of success.