Is the International Convergence of Capital Adequacy Regulation Desirable?

The merit of international convergence of bank capital requirements in the presence of divergent closure policies of different central banks is examined. The lack of a complementary variation between minimum bank capital requirements and regulatory forbearance leads to a spillover from more forbearing to less forbearing economies and reduces the competitive advantage of banks in less forbearing economies. Linking the central bank's forbearance to its alignment with domestic bank owners, it is shown that in equilibrium, a regression toward the worst closure policy may result: The central banks of initially less forbearing economies also adopt greater forbearance.     

Insider trading in credit derivatives

Insider trading in the credit derivatives market has become a significant concern for regulators and participants. This paper attempts to quantify the problem. Using news reflected in the stock market as a benchmark for public information, we find significant incremental information revelation in the credit default swap market under circumstances consistent with the use of non-public information by informed banks. The information revelation occurs only for negative credit news and for entities that subsequently experience adverse shocks, and increases with the number of a firm's relationship banks. We find no evidence, however, that the degree of asymmetric information adversely affects prices or liquidity in either the equity or credit markets.     

Traffic law enforcement in Hyderabad, India

The aim of the study was to understand traffic law enforcement (TLE) carried out by the police to reduce non-compliance with traffic laws on the roads of Hyderabad city in India for 2001-2003. The Traffic Police database of citations issued to drivers who violated traffic laws in Hyderabad was analysed for the years 2001-2003 to describe the TLE activities of the police, to describe and compare the TLE activities for the different types of vehicles and to compare the TLE activities for the 3 years. The violations were classified in five categories - those related to driving, parking, vehicle, document and others; and TLE into safety and other TLE. A total of 646 161 traffic-law violations were registered in 2001, 904 447 in 2002 and 964 275 in 2003 for Hyderabad. Driving and parking violations were the most common violations registered in all 3 years, with parking violations slightly higher in 2001 (43.5%) and driving violations slightly higher in 2002 (35%) and 2003 (36.4%). Auto-rickshaws (three-wheel commercial passenger vehicles) accounted for the highest violations registered in 2001 (41.4%) whereas motorized two-wheelers had the highest registered violations in 2002 (35.5%) and 2003 (33.2%). Safety TLE activity (detecting and registering driving violations) was only one-third of all the TLE activity performed by the police in the 3 years, and disobeying traffic signals was the most common violation registered under safety TLE. Indian rupees 50 (US$1.1) were collected by way of a fine in 87% of the cases registered. Age and gender of the violators were not recorded in the database. These data can be used for planning, monitoring and evaluating TLE in Hyderabad. These can help identify traffic control and human factors that could lead to traffic noncompliance, and help identify priorities for improving road safety. These data indicate a need to enhance the safety TLE activity of the police, to make TLE more visible in Hyderabad, and to assess the effectiveness of the current legal action as deterrence to improve road safety. Recommendations to enhance TLE within the given resources of the police are made. More effort is needed towards systematic collection and analysis of data on TLE in India to facilitate long-term improvements in TLE for safer roads.     

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases in producers' hedging demand or speculators' capital constraints increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures. These in turn affect producers' equilibrium hedging and supply decision inducing a link between a financial friction in the futures market and the commodity spot prices. Consistent with the model, measures of producers' propensity to hedge forecasts futures returns and spot prices in oil and gas market data from 1979 to 2010. The component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect equilibrium commodity supply and prices.     

Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach

We study the exposure of the US corporate bond returns to liquidity shocks of stocks and Treasury bonds over the period 1973–2007 in a regime-switching model. In one regime, liquidity shocks have mostly insignificant effects on bond prices, whereas in another regime, a rise in illiquidity produces significant but conflicting effects: Prices of investment-grade bonds rise while prices of speculative-grade (junk) bonds fall substantially (relative to the market). Relating the probability of these regimes to macroeconomic conditions we find that the second regime can be predicted by economic conditions that are characterized as “stress.” These effects, which are robust to controlling for other systematic risks (term and default), suggest the existence of time-varying liquidity risk of corporate bond returns conditional on episodes of flight to liquidity. Our model can predict the out-of-sample bond returns for the stress years 2008–2009. We find a similar pattern for stocks classified by high or low book-to-market ratio, where again, liquidity shocks play a special role in periods characterized by adverse economic conditions.     

Technology transfer through imports

Abstract .  We study international technology transfer through R&D spillovers in sixteen countries' manufacturing industries since the early 1970s. The analysis shows that the productivity impact of international technology transfer often exceeds that of domestic technological change, more so in high-technology industries. Moreover, technology transfer is found to be strongly varying across country-pairs and tends to decline in geographic distance, pointing to goods trade as the transfer channel. We directly evaluate this hypothesis, and results suggest that trade is crucial for technology transfer from Germany, France, and the UK, while for the US, Japan, and Canada non-trade channels are more important.