Productivity and Welfare

Technical change is generally characterized by a rate and biases, both evaluated for given producer prices. This paper examines the potential discrepancy between this rate and the corresponding rate of consumer welfare change as measured by Allais distributable surplus. We postulate a general equilibrium context with various market failures (taxes, quotas, imperfect competition, and “poorly priced” commodities), and use comparative statics to express the rate of welfare change in terms of the rate and biases of the technical change. An elementary simulation model of a taxed economy suggests that the rate of welfare change may differ from the rate of technical change by as much as 50% under plausible circumstances.     

Is there a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth in South America?

This article estimates agricultural productivity growth in 10 South American countries in 1969–2009 with the objective of investigating if the slowdown being measured in other countries is present in the region. Results show that productivity growth accounts for half of the three‐fold increase in agricultural output during this period and that performance is sensitive to R&D investments in the sector. The slowdown found for the 1990s to 2000s in the U.S. and some European economies does not seem to be present yet in South America. The region's total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate increased steadily from 1.07% during the 1970s to 2.29% during the 2000s. Given lags in adoption and the adaptive nature of innovations in these economies, we have yet to see the potential effects in South American agriculture of decreases in R&D in advanced economies.     

Institutions and agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agricultural productivity in 41 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1960 to 1999 is examined by estimating a semi-nonparametric Fourier production frontier. Over the four decades the estimated rate of productivity change was 0.83% per year, although the average rate from 1985 to 1999 was a strong 1.90% per year. Former UK colonies exhibited significantly higher productivity gains than others, while Liberia and countries that had been colonies of Portugal or Belgium exhibited net reductions in productivity. We measure a significant reduction in productivity during political conflicts and wars, and a significant increase in productivity among those countries with higher levels of political rights and civil liberties.     

Public inputs and dynamic producer behavior: endogenous growth in U.S. agriculture

This paper is an attempt to understand the impact of public R&D and public infrastructure on the performance of the U.S. agricultural sector during the last part of the twentieth century. A neoclassical Solow growth model is not sufficient for this understanding given the sustained growth performance of the sector. We base our analysis on a well-known endogenous growth model, the ‘AK model’ where non-convexities are introduced through non-rival inputs. Based on these models and within the dynamic models that rationalize private and public decision making, we have identified three testable hypotheses regarding the aggregate agricultural production technology. They are: (1) increasing returns to scale over all inputs; (2) positive effect of additional units of public inputs on the long-run demand for private capital; and (3) negative impact of public inputs on cost. They are tested using two estimation procedures on two data sets for U.S. agriculture. One, covering the period 1948–1994, developed by USDA, the other, covering the period 1926–1990, from Thirtle et al. Maximum likelihood estimates do not conform to the regularity and behavioral properties of the economic model rendering them unusable for testing these hypotheses. Bayesian estimates, although not totally satisfactory, do not reject the hypotheses after prior imposition of some of the regularity conditions. This supports the notion of an important role for public inputs on the rapid and sustained growth of the sector. We calculate that, on average, one additional dollar spent on public R&D stock reduces private cost by $6.5, implying a return on these public expenses of 190%.

Rates of return to public agricultural research in 48 US states

The internal rate of return to public investment in agricultural R&D is estimated for each of the continental US states. Theoretically, our contribution provides a way of obtaining the returns to a local public good using Rothbart’s concept of virtual prices. Empirically, a stochastic cost function that includes own knowledge capital stock as well as spillover capital stock variables is estimated. Stochastic spatial dependency among states generated by knowledge spillovers is used to define the ‘appropriate’ jurisdictions. We estimate an average own-state rate of 17% and a social rate of 29% that compare well to the 9 and 12% average returns of the S&P500 and NASDAQ composite indexes during the same period.     

Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive

The main purpose of this study is to examine the links between outward FDI and the competitiveness of Taiwanese industries. This is done by emphasizing the difference between ‘defensive’ versus ‘expansionary’ outward FDI. The empirical study is based on a panel data of 15 industries over the period 1991–2001. The results indicate that outward FDI of the defensive type, in particular that destined to China, while increasing industry efficiency has had a significant negative influence on competitiveness of the Taiwanese industry through its effects on innovative activity. While outward FDI has impacted the industry's productivity growth it has not decreased the industry's output growth or its share of domestic GDP.     

The opportunity cost of preserving the Brazilian Amazon forest

We estimate the trade‐off between forest preservation and agricultural production for the Legal Amazon region, using census and deforestation data for municipalities in 2006. We use a directional distance function to represent the production possibility frontier, and then calculate the shadow price of reducing deforestation in terms of agricultural income foregone. Results indicate that, on average, to preserve 1 ha of forest, $797 in annual agricultural GDP must be foregone. Using a discount rate of 10% and average forest carbon density of 132 tons per hectare, these results imply an average shadow price of $16 per ton of CO₂ permanently sequestered.     

Accounting for agricultural decline with economic growth in Taiwan

In this paper, we develop an empirical model to decompose the evolution of the agricultural share of GDP into three components: price changes, factor endowment changes and technological change. Our results suggest that relative prices have a positive but small influence on the share of agriculture in GDP in both the long‐run and the short‐run. An increase in capital per unit of labor, on the other hand, is associated with a smaller agricultural share. Technical change has been biased in favor of the agricultural sector but this effect has been swamped by the magnitude of the input effects, in particular, the changes in the capital‐labor ratio.     

What comes first,agricultural growth or democracy?

Today, the international community faces two major development challenges: how to ignite growth and how to establish democracy. Economic research has identified two plausible hypotheses regarding this association. The first hypothesis emphasizes the need to start with democracy and institutions that secure property rights. The second hypothesis emphasizes the need to start with physical and human capital accumulation. In this article, we discuss some of the econometric evidence on the relationship between institutions, human capital, and agricultural productivity growth across developed and developing countries with the objective of finding support for one or the other hypothesis. We find that most variables used in the literature to capture the effect of institutions are not independent of the process of growth. While no evidence of causation from political institutions to agricultural productivity growth is found, human capital accumulation emerges as an important source of growth.